摩根大通：中国房地产-黄金周 - 开发商和代理商对房产销售及零售销售的看法

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several companies including China Resources Land, China Overseas Land, and Longfor Group, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [14][27][33]. Core Insights - Market sentiment in top-tier cities is described as tepid, with SOE developers reporting a 10-20% year-on-year growth in sales during the Golden Week, while POE developers experienced a decline [3][4]. - Subscriptions in 19 key cities increased by 6% year-on-year, although there was a week-on-week drop of 25% during the first five days of the Golden Week [4][3]. - Retail sales in key shopping malls showed a growth of 5-10% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [3][4]. - Leading indicators such as the Centaline asking price index and manager confidence index have softened, suggesting a moderation in the market [3][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Trends - SOE developers reported a double-digit year-on-year growth in subscriptions/sales, while POE developers saw a decline due to fewer launches [3][4]. - The overall sentiment among property agents in tier-1 cities is cautious, with homebuyers adopting a wait-and-see approach [3][4]. Retail Performance - Key shopping mall landlords reported same-store tenant sales growth of 5-10% year-on-year, with luxury malls experiencing similar growth [3][4]. Leading Indicators - The Centaline secondary asking price index decreased from 21.9 to 21.3, and the manager confidence index dropped from 50.6 to 49.6, reflecting a return to levels seen in September 2024 [3][5]. Stock Recommendations - The report favors stocks with turnaround stories such as Longfor, Jinmao, and COPH, alongside fundamentally strong companies like CR Land and CR Mixc [3][14].