花旗：Shopify-2025 年第一季度小组电话会议要点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shopify Inc is "Buy" with a high risk designation [3][15] - Current price is US$94.00 with a target price of US$135.00, indicating an expected share price return of 43.6% [3] Core Insights - Shopify management reported continued momentum from Q1 into Q2, with solid performance and some FX tailwinds expected [5] - There is a noted increase in entrepreneurship during uncertain times, which may benefit Shopify's business model [5] - The company is experiencing a shift in payment methods, with PayPal's rollout impacting gross margins, but overall payments are seen as a driver for adoption of other offerings [10] - AI is beginning to influence how consumers discover and shop, with Shopify aiming to enhance search results and product visibility [10] - The B2B segment is growing significantly, with over 109% growth, indicating a strong opportunity for Shopify [13] - The enterprise segment is also seeing increased momentum, with a robust deal pipeline [13] - Shopify's valuation is based on a target price of $135, derived from a forward EV/Sales multiple of approximately 10.5x FY28E [14] Summary by Sections Guidance - Management has factored in potential uncertainties related to tariffs and consumer spending, with a focus on the impact of a weaker USD on European revenues [5] Payments Evolution - The payments landscape is evolving, with a focus on expanding Shop Pay and integrating payments into more countries [10] AI Vision - AI is expected to provide net benefits for entrepreneurs, enhancing the overall Shopify experience without significantly altering the competitive landscape [10] B2B & Enterprise - The B2B segment is performing well, and enterprise conversations are accelerating, indicating a positive outlook for growth in these areas [13]