2025-05-12 03:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for China Resources Microelectronics (CR Micro) with a price target of Rmb40.00 for December 2026, based on a 26x one-year forward P/E ratio [1][12][28]. Core Insights - CR Micro reported 1Q25 sales of Rmb2.4 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, while net profit surged by 151% year-over-year to Rmb83 million. However, gross margin declined due to increased depreciation from capacity release [1][12]. - The company is expected to experience a sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% and an earnings CAGR of 39% from 2025 to 2027, despite near-term profit pressures from joint venture (JV) losses in Shenzhen and Chongqing [1][12][27]. - The product segment is anticipated to outpace the service segment in long-term growth, with a projected 18% sales CAGR for products and 10% for services during 2025-2027 [7][12]. Financial Summary - For FY25, revenue is estimated at Rmb11,331 million, with a projected increase to Rmb12,983 million in FY26 and Rmb14,936 million in FY27 [11][20]. - The adjusted net income for FY25 is forecasted at Rmb858 million, increasing to Rmb1,421 million in FY26 and Rmb2,035 million in FY27 [11][20]. - The report indicates a decline in gross profit margin (GPM) from 27.2% in FY24 to 26.5% in FY25, with expectations of recovery to 28.4% by FY26 [20][31]. Market Position and Performance - CR Micro has underperformed the A-share Semiconductor Index by 5% year-to-date and is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 45x for FY26, which is 30% higher than its peers [7][12]. - The company is recognized as a leading power semiconductor supplier in China, with growth driven by an expanding product portfolio and market share gains [12][27]. Key Changes in Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY25 have been slightly revised down from Rmb11,382 million to Rmb11,331 million, while FY26 estimates have been adjusted from Rmb13,019 million to Rmb12,983 million [2][20]. - Adjusted earnings estimates for FY25 have been reduced by 40% to Rmb858 million, reflecting higher-than-expected investment losses from JV fabs [7][12]. Quarterly Forecasts - The quarterly revenue forecast for 1Q25 is Rmb2,355 million, with expectations of Rmb2,803 million in 2Q25, Rmb3,053 million in 3Q25, and Rmb3,120 million in 4Q25 [3][31]. Valuation - The price target of Rmb40.00 reflects a cautious outlook, considering sector-wide headwinds and is positioned at the trough level of historical valuation [12][28].