汇丰：FOMC 资产反应-政策复杂性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on US Treasuries and a defensive position in US credit markets [4][32][28] Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate steady at 4.25-4.50% for the third consecutive time, citing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and heightened risks of both higher unemployment and inflation [10][19][20] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in April, with expectations of GDP growth slowing to 1.0% on a Q4/Q4 basis this year and the unemployment rate potentially rising to nearly 5% by year-end [12][13] - The report expresses skepticism about the resilience of risky assets in the face of a tumultuous policy backdrop, suggesting that negative economic surprises could lead to a rapid decline in these assets [5][41][42] Summary by Sections Labor Market and Economic Outlook - The FOMC's decision to maintain rates reflects concerns over the impact of larger-than-anticipated tariffs on the economy, which could lead to different policy responses depending on inflation and unemployment trends [11][10] - The report forecasts three 25 basis point rate cuts in June, September, and December, contingent on labor market data showing signs of softening [13][14] Currency Analysis - The USD has shown modest strength following the FOMC's decision, with its value currently influenced by political and structural factors rather than solely by interest rate differentials [3][22] Fixed Income Strategy - The report maintains a neutral duration conviction on US Treasuries, indicating a wait-and-see approach amid policy uncertainty and mixed economic data [4][24] - Expectations for lower Treasury yields by year-end are noted, with a forecast of 3.50% for 10Y Treasuries by the end of 2025 [28] Multi-Asset Strategy - Risky assets have demonstrated resilience despite a challenging economic environment, but the report warns that this may not be sustainable [5][41] - The report highlights the potential for negative surprises in economic data to impact market sentiment and positioning, leading to a cautious outlook on equities [44][43] Credit Market Strategy - The report indicates that corporate spreads may not fully reflect the cyclical risks posed by tariffs, with expectations for wider spreads in the near term [32][36] - Revised year-end spread targets for US investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) credit have been set higher, reflecting anticipated economic pressures [36][37]