Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Thailand's delay in the rubber tapping season by one month boosts raw material prices, and the improvement in macro sentiment drives a slight rebound in rubber prices. However, the tariff policy weakens demand expectations, suppressing the upside of rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate widely, with an operating range of 14,500 - 15,500 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - Spot Prices and Basis: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton (0.34%), and the whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 140 yuan/ton (87.50%). The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.35%), and the non - standard price difference increased by 40 yuan/ton (12.90%). The prices of cup rubber and glue in the international market dropped to 0, with a decline of 100%. In Xishuangbanna, the price of rubber blocks remained unchanged, and the price of glue decreased by 400 yuan/ton (-2.92%). The mainstream prices of raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged [2]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-1.19%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton (-4.23%), and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 55 yuan/ton (24.44%) [2]. - Fundamental Data: In March, Thailand's production decreased by 197,200 tons (-56.93%), Indonesia's production increased by 11,700 tons (5.92%), India's production decreased by 21,000 tons (-28.38%), and China's production increased by 15,800 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 14.08 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 11.47 percentage points. Domestic tire production in March increased by 188,600 pieces (1.79%), and tire export volume increased by 1,853,000 pieces (42.34%). The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 90,900 tons (18.07%), and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 7,500 tons (-9.87%) [2]. - Inventory Changes: The bonded area inventory decreased by 3,797 tons (-0.62%), and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 3,527 tons (4.96%). The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased by 2.18 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Soda Ash: Information about maintenance plans and price - holding in the soda ash market disturbs the market, and the market trend is volatile. If maintenance is implemented, it will relieve supply pressure. In the short - term, the supply side may face more pressure due to high - level production and the expected production of Lianyungang Soda Industry in May. The recent reduction in float glass production capacity and the resumption of photovoltaic production bring some demand for soda ash, and the inventory of soda ash plants has remained stable. Future maintenance situations can be tracked. If maintenance occurs, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. One can consider short - term high - selling operations for single - side rebounds and 7 - 9 positive spreads for inter - month operations [4]. - Glass: The policies issued by the State Council Information Office last week had limited impact on the actual demand for glass, and the market reaction was muted. Recently, the spot price of glass has weakened, and the prices in the Shahe market have generally declined. The sales of futures - cash merchants have affected the production - sales rate of manufacturers. Although the downstream deep - processing orders have improved seasonally from April to May, the macro - environment is weak, and there is an expectation of a summer rainy season starting in June, which will slow down demand. It is expected that the short - term glass price will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to observe whether the 1000 level can support the 09 contract [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The price of Glass 2505 decreased by 6 yuan/ton (-0.57%), and the price of Glass 2509 decreased by 23 yuan/ton (-2.18%). The 05 basis increased by 6 yuan/ton (3.43%) [4]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The price of Soda Ash 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.54%), and the price of Soda Ash 2509 decreased by 18 yuan/ton (-1.39%). The 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-3.41%) [4]. - Supply: The soda ash production rate decreased by 1.97 percentage points, the weekly production of soda ash decreased by 14,000 tons (-1.89%), the daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 3,000 tons (-1.71%), and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increased by 1,300 tons (1.32%). The price of 3.2mm coated glass remained unchanged [4]. - Inventory: The glass factory inventory increased by 257,100 heavy boxes (3.96%), the soda ash factory inventory increased by 29,000 tons (1.74%), the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21,000 tons (5.89%), and the number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The price of industrial silicon has remained weak. Although the industry is facing high supply and high - warehouse receipts pressure and the main demand continues to weaken, there are some signs of improvement. The supply in Sichuan has increased, but the reduction in Xinjiang has led to a significant weekly output decline, and warehouse receipts are being digested. Some enterprises in Xinjiang are reluctant to lower prices. The price fluctuation range is 8,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton. With limited demand growth, attention should be paid to whether there will be further production contractions [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and its basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-2.91%). The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and its basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-2.60%). The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.59%), and its basis decreased by 75 yuan/ton (-7.81%) [7]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-33.33%), the 2506 - 2507 spread remained unchanged, the 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton (14.29%), the 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-25.00%) [7]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In March, the national industrial silicon production increased by 52,700 tons (18.20%), Xinjiang's production increased by 44,300 tons (26.57%), Yunnan's production increased by 1,400 tons, and Sichuan's production increased by 170 tons. The national开工率 increased by 6.78 percentage points, Xinjiang's开工率 increased by 30.41 percentage points, Yunnan's开工率 decreased by 2.16 percentage points, and Sichuan's开工率 increased by 53.13 percentage points. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 15,100 tons (-8.04%), the production of polysilicon decreased by 700 tons (-0.73%), the production of aluminum alloy increased by 28,000 tons (11.67%), and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 830 tons (-15.82%) [7]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory in Xinjiang factories decreased by 400 tons (1.87%), the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan remained unchanged, the social inventory decreased by 700 tons (-1.16%), the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 540 tons (-1.57%), and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 160 tons (-0.62%) [7]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View There is a significant divergence between long and short positions in the polysilicon futures market, and the futures price has fluctuated significantly. The short side believes that demand decline will lead to inventory accumulation, price decline will be transmitted upstream, and cost reduction will open up downward space. The long side believes that production enterprises will increase maintenance and reduce production in May, which is expected to lead to slow inventory reduction. The futures price has fallen too fast and is at a large discount to the spot price, and the cost of deliverable products is higher. As of mid - May, there are still few warehouse receipts, and 20 lots of warehouse receipts have been cancelled, which is favorable for the long side. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate in the range of 36,000 - 42,000 yuan/ton. One can try to go long at low prices or engage in positive spreads [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs - Spot Prices and Basis: The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 880 yuan/ton (-24.79%), and the cauliflower material basis decreased by 880 yuan/ton (-13.44%). The average prices of N - type 210mm silicon wafers decreased, and the average prices of some battery cells and components also decreased [8]. - Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads: The price of PS2506 increased by 880 yuan/ton (2.38%). The spreads between some contracts increased, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased by 800 yuan/ton (53.16%), and the PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 80 yuan/ton (17.78%) [8]. - Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly): The weekly production of silicon wafers decreased by 0.94 GW (-7.07%), and the weekly production of polysilicon decreased by 0.10 million tons (-4.46%). In April, the production of polysilicon decreased by 0.07 million tons (-0.73%), the import volume of polysilicon in March decreased by 0.02 million tons (-7.10%), the export volume decreased by 0.02 million tons (-10.40%), and the net export volume remained unchanged. In April, the production of silicon wafers increased by 7.59 GW (14.95%), the import volume in March decreased by 0.03 million tons (-32.03%), the export volume increased by 0.13 million tons (28.29%), and the net export volume increased by 0.16 million tons (42.57%). The demand for silicon wafers in April increased by 8.28 GW (14.36%) [8]. - Inventory Changes: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.40 million tons (-1.53%), the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.49 GW (-12.08%), and the polysilicon orders increased by 10 (33.33%) [8].
《特殊商品》日报-20250512
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-05-12 05:50