《有色》日报-20250512
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-05-12 06:12
- Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Lithium Carbonate: The market is bearish with weak fundamentals and high inventory. The price is expected to remain weak, with the main contract ranging from 62,000 to 66,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - Tin: The supply side is expected to recover, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. The price may rebound due to macro - sentiment but is likely to be bearish in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery rhythm [4]. - Nickel: The macro - sentiment is temporarily stable, and the cost provides support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Stainless Steel: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expanding, and the inventory pressure is slightly relieved. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Zinc: The supply side may become looser, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported in the short - term, but in the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Aluminum: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate, and the aluminum price is expected to be weak, with the support level at 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton [12]. - Copper: The copper market shows a "strong reality + weak expectation" pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton pressure level [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 65,250 yuan/ton, while battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.23%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 10,800% [1]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.99% to 259,600 yuan/ton [4]. - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.06% to 124,825 yuan/ton [5]. - Stainless Steel: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged at 13,050 yuan/ton [6]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.35% to 22,770 yuan/ton [9]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.05% to 19,610 yuan/ton [12]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.29% to 78,205 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamentals - Lithium Carbonate: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, while demand increased by 3.02%. Inventory increased by 6.81% [1]. - Tin: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75% [4]. - Nickel: In April, China's refined nickel products increased by 6.08%, and imports decreased by 68.84% [5]. - Stainless Steel: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.65%, and exports increased by 70.98% [6]. - Zinc: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the social inventory increased by 8.18% [9]. - Aluminum: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% [12]. - Copper: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7.33% [13].