芳烃橡胶早报-20250512

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA start - up has declined, polyester start - up has increased, inventory has decreased month - on - month, the basis has strengthened, and the spot processing fee has decreased month - on - month but remains at a relatively high level. Consider shorting the far - month TA processing fee [2]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic coal - based restart and oil - based maintenance have kept the start - up stable. The port inventory has decreased slightly, the downstream inventory level has decreased slightly, the basis has strengthened, and the profitability has improved month - on - month. Pay attention to the dynamics of ethane - based plants [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up has increased to 94.1%, sales have improved month - on - month, and inventory has remained stable. The downstream fundamentals are expected to be under pressure, but the futures processing fee has been compressed to a relatively low level, so it is expected to remain weak [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the main contradictions are the low absolute level of national explicit inventory, a slight rebound in the price of Thai cup lump rubber, and the storage purchase. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From April 30 to May 9, the price of PTA spot increased by 100, the spot processing fee decreased by 7.0, and the polyester gross profit decreased by 23. The basis increased by 30, and the sales - to - production ratio increased by 0.15 [2]. - Device Changes: Taihua's 1.5 million - ton plant was under maintenance, Honggang's 2.5 million - ton plant was under maintenance, and Tongkun Jiatong's 3 million - ton plant restarted [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From April 30 to May 9, the MEG domestic price increased by 39, the coal - based profit increased by 75.96, and the domestic cash flow (ethylene) increased by 38 [3]. - Device Changes: Shanghai Petrochemical's 380,000 - ton plant restarted, Guizhou Qianxi's 300,000 - ton plant was under maintenance, and CNOOC Shell's 400,000 - ton plant was under maintenance [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From April 30 to May 9, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 25, the short - fiber profit decreased by 73, and the pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 25 [3]. - Device Changes: No device maintenance was reported. The start - up rate increased to 94.1% [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: From April 30 to May 9, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased by 15, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed rubber decreased by 20, and the price of RMB mixed rubber decreased by 70 [3]. - Related Ratios and Profits: The difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract increased by 20, the difference between US - dollar Thai standard rubber and NR main contract increased by 4, and the Thai standard rubber processing profit decreased by 4 [3]. Styrene - Price Changes: From April 30 to May 9, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) decreased by 5, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 5 [5]. - Profit Changes: The domestic styrene profit increased by 44, the EPS domestic profit decreased by 70, and the PS domestic profit decreased by 69 [5].