原木期货日报-20250512

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The demand side is constrained by the traditional off - season in May. The demand for real - estate building materials is lower than expected, and furniture exports are affected by the China - US tariff war, so the later demand may be further compressed. In May, overseas shipments are expected to remain high, short - term arrival pressure is reduced, and the inventory destocking is mediocre. With the current spot price continuously decreasing, the weak balance pattern of the fundamentals persists, and the futures market is expected to be mainly oscillating weakly [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (log2507, log2509, log2511) increased slightly on February 8, with increases of 0.58%, 0.57%, and 0.44% respectively. The spreads between some contracts changed, and the basis of each contract decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports remained unchanged. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar and import theoretical costs changed slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 1.36 yuan [2] Supply - Monthly supply: Port throughput increased by 39.0 (24.17%) to 200.3 million cubic meters from March 31 to April 30, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8 (13.79%) to 66 [2] Inventory - Main port inventory (weekly): As of April 25, the inventory in China was 351.00 million cubic meters, with no change week - on - week. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 4.8 to 198.8 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.6 to 116.38 million cubic meters [2][3] Demand - Daily average outbound volume (weekly): As of April 25, the daily average outbound volume in China was 6.86 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters (5%) compared to April 18. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong increased by 0.56 million cubic meters (17%), and the daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu decreased by 0.21 million cubic meters (- 8%) [3]