Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market shows a slowdown in inventory depletion, with high selling pressure due to weakening premiums and uncertain future demand. Attention should be paid to consumption inflection points and market sentiment influenced by Sino - US negotiations. For aluminum, supply slightly increases, and the demand gap remains. It is recommended to observe absolute prices and take profit on aluminum internal - external reverse spreads. For zinc, it is in a state of strong current situation and weak expectations, and it is advisable to short at high prices and hold internal - external positive spreads. For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and the unilateral price is expected to be under pressure. For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and the supply is expected to decrease in May. For tin, the short - term supply is disturbed, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term and look for high - short opportunities in the long - term. For industrial silicon, the short - term supply and demand both decrease, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term, and there is short - term demand for replenishment [1][2][4][7][8][10][12]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: From April 30 to May 9, the spot premium decreased by 145, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 260, and the inventory decreased by 375. The spot import profit increased by 412.57, and the three - month import profit increased by 205.67 [1]. - Supply and Demand: In April, copper concentrate imports increased. There is no concentrated production reduction or maintenance in smelting enterprises. The demand shows strong current situation but weak future expectations, with concerns about photovoltaic installation and re - export demand [1]. - Outlook: The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. Pay attention to consumption inflection points and market sentiment influenced by Sino - US negotiations. The upward momentum of the monthly spread requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1]. Aluminum - Market Data: From April 30 to May 9, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 10, and the social inventory had no significant change. The spot import profit decreased by 213.48, and the three - month import profit decreased by 129.00 [1]. - Supply and Demand: Supply slightly increases, and the demand gap remains. The 5 - 7 month inventory depletion is expected to be gentle [1]. - Outlook: Observe absolute prices, take profit on aluminum internal - external reverse spreads. If the absolute price drops, the monthly positive spread can be held [1]. Zinc - Market Data: From April 30 to May 9, the zinc price center oscillated slightly downward. The domestic TC increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the import TC slightly increased. The social inventory is at a low level, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [2]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is stable with a slight decrease in smelting maintenance in May. Domestic demand has limited impetus, and overseas demand shows a slight recovery. The domestic inventory is expected to turn from depletion to accumulation in mid - late May [2]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the inventory turning point, short at high prices, hold internal - external positive spreads, and look for monthly reverse spread opportunities after mid - May [2]. Nickel - Market Data: From April 30 to May 9, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of high - nickel iron was not provided. The price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 300, and the spot import profit decreased by 316.87 [3]. - Supply and Demand: Supply remains at a high level, and demand is weak. Overseas nickel plate inventory decreases slightly, and domestic inventory remains stable [4]. - Outlook: Pay attention to tariff policies of Indonesia and other countries towards China and nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities [4]. Stainless Steel - Market Data: From April 30 to May 9, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [7]. - Supply and Demand: Supply may decrease in May, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The cost of nickel - iron and chrome - iron is under pressure, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan accumulates after the holiday [7]. - Outlook: The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure, and the reverse spread can be transferred and held [7]. Lead - Market Data: From April 30 to May 9, the lead price oscillated. The spot import profit decreased by 262.91, and the LME inventory decreased by 1725 [8]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is affected by factors such as low scrap volume and concentrated production of recycled smelters. Demand is weak, with a slight decline in battery export orders [8]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 16900, and the supply in May is expected to decrease [8]. Tin - Market Data: From April 30 to May 9, the spot import profit decreased by 3114.23, and the spot export profit increased by 2935.09. The LME inventory decreased by 50 [8]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is affected by factors such as the resumption of production in African mines and the possible reduction in domestic production. Demand is weak, with limited elasticity of solder and a decline in terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth [8]. - Outlook: The short - term supply is disturbed, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term. In the long - term, look for high - short opportunities, and June may be a key stage to verify the transfer from ore shortage to ingot shortage [8]. Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From April 30 to May 9, the basis of 421 silicon in Yunnan, Sichuan, and the basis of 553 silicon in East China and Tianjin increased by 110, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1077 [10]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is affected by factors such as the reduction in production of large northern factories and the resumption of production in some factories in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia. Demand is weak, with a decline in the demand for organic silicon and polysilicon [10]. - Outlook: The short - term supply and demand both decrease, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From April 30 to May 9, the price of SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the basis of the main contract increased by 1260. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 110 [12]. - Supply and Demand: Supply increases, with the end of production line maintenance in some factories and the release of goods by large salt - lake factories. Demand is weak, with a reduction in orders from the US energy storage market and only safety - stock replenishment by downstream enterprises [12]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term, and there is short - term demand for replenishment [12].
有色早报-20250512
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-05-12 06:39