摩根士丹利：Investor Presentation-中国表象之下的增长困境

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the industry, with a potential downside risk of 0.5 percentage points to the 2025 GDP growth forecast if US-China tariffs remain at current levels [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while direct tariff impacts have been mitigated by trade rerouting, growth and deflationary pressures are mounting, with real GDP year-on-year expected to slip by approximately 1 percentage point to around 4.5% in the second quarter of 2025 [9][11]. - The report discusses the ongoing US-China trade tensions, noting that the terminal tariff rates will remain elevated despite potential de-escalation talks [5][6]. - It emphasizes the need for policy measures to support consumption and economic growth, including a supplementary fiscal package and monetary easing [34][40]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report outlines that headline reciprocal tariffs would remain at 60%, but the trade-weighted tariff hike would be reduced to 34% with exemptions on certain products [6][7]. - It notes that the direct tariff shock was mitigated in April, but exports to the US could decline further in May [13]. Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is projected to decline, with a new forecast indicating a drop to around 4.5% year-on-year in 2Q25 [9][10]. - The report suggests that deflationary pressures are likely to persist, affecting overall economic performance [28][30]. Consumption and Investment - There is a noted decline in consumer spending, particularly during the Labor Day holiday, indicating subdued consumption appetite [23][24]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in manufacturing upgrades, urban infrastructure renewal, and basic scientific research [36][40]. Policy Measures - The report outlines a series of policy measures aimed at stimulating the economy, including faster issuance of government bonds and a consumer goods trade-in program [34]. - It anticipates a Rmb1-1.5 trillion supplementary fiscal package in the second half of 2025 to support economic recovery [34][40].