摩根士丹利：中国经济-关税产生影响，通缩压力加剧

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Deflationary pressures are worsening in China, primarily due to the impact of tariffs on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the overall economic environment [1][7] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains stable at 0.5% year-on-year, indicating some resilience despite broader deflationary trends [2][4] - The PPI has shown a significant decline, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.4%, driven by lower prices in oil, raw materials, and durable consumer goods [3][7] Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - Core CPI year-on-year remained at 0.5% in April, unchanged from March, while month-on-month seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) was 0.7% [2] - Food inflation reached its highest level in five months, primarily due to increased prices for fruit and beef, countering the effects of lower international oil prices [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decreased to -2.7% in April, reflecting ongoing tariff impacts and weaker final demand [6][7] - Specific sectors such as textiles, wood products, chemicals, rubber, and plastics experienced accelerated price declines, indicating significant exposure to the US market [3][7] Outlook - The PPI is expected to slip below -3% year-on-year from the current -2.7% during the May-July period due to less favorable base effects and continued tariff impacts [4] - Core CPI is anticipated to soften sequentially as the effects of PPI pass through, although year-on-year figures may remain resilient due to a low base [4][7]