新常态下的中国消费

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market has entered a "new normal" characterized by single-digit growth, with consumers beginning to adapt to this new reality after a period of low confidence and consumption downgrade [4] - Despite challenges, the actual situation is more optimistic than some observers suggest, with consumer confidence stabilizing and a shift towards prioritizing personal achievement in purchasing decisions [4][26] Summary by Sections Introduction - Since the second quarter of 2025, the Chinese consumer market has shown signs of single-digit growth, with consumers starting to accept and adapt to the new normal [4] - A nationwide survey conducted by McKinsey in late 2024 included over 17,000 Chinese consumers, segmented into 108 groups based on various factors [4] Trend 1: Acceptance of the New Normal - GDP growth in China is expected to remain around 5% in 2024 and early 2025, with resilient performance in sectors like tourism, dining, and health [6] - Consumer expectations for 2025 indicate a consumption growth rate of 2.3%, slightly down from 2.4% in 2024, driven by urbanization and stable consumer spending as a percentage of income [6][8] Trend 2: Stabilization of Consumer Confidence - Since September 2024, the People's Bank of China has implemented policies to boost consumer confidence, with 81% of informed respondents expressing greater confidence in the macroeconomic outlook [12][18] - Overall consumer confidence has stabilized, with 76% of respondents optimistic about the economic future, although variations exist among different demographic groups [18][20] Trend 3: Focus on Personal Achievement - Consumers are increasingly making purchasing decisions based on tangible factors like personal asset value rather than confidence levels [26] - Wealthy urban consumers plan to increase daily spending by 2.6% in 2025, focusing on both tangible goods and intangible services that enhance personal fulfillment [26][27] Conclusion - The complexity and differentiation of the Chinese consumer market are increasing, with spending intentions influenced more by actual income and assets than by confidence levels [32] - Companies in the consumer goods sector must adapt to these market changes to seize opportunities for growth in the coming years [32]