瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250512

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term of the MA2509 contract is expected to be strong due to the unexpectedly positive results of the Sino - US negotiations, but investors should not blindly chase the rise and need to control risks. It is also expected that the short - term enterprise inventory may slightly accumulate, while the port methanol inventory is expected to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,270 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 64 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 757,482 lots, down 10,354 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 68,779 lots, up 18,533 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,380, unchanged [3]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,405 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2,100 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The East - Northwest price difference is 305 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 135 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 264 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 340 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 230 euros/ton, down 1 euro; the price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 76 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar [3]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.79 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.17 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 37.95 tons, down 1.29 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 18.24 tons, up 3.74 tons. The methanol import profit is 100.81 yuan/ton, up 11.4 yuan; the monthly import volume is 47.3 tons, down 8.88 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 237,800 tons, down 11,800 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.17%, up 2.2% [3]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.54%, down 0.03%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.97%, down 0.69%; the acetic acid operating rate is 87.58%, down 1.26%; the MTBE operating rate is 61.37%, up 0.58%; the olefin operating rate is 82.55%, down 0.8%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 580 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.64%, up 0.24%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.28%, up 0.59%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.64%, down 0.38%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.63%, down 0.39% [3]. Industry News - As of May 7, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 30.39 tons, up 2.06 tons or 7.26% from the previous period; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 23.78 tons, down 1.19 tons or 4.75%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 55.19 tons, up 1.45 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.29 tons, while that in South China increased by 2.74 tons. As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.48%, down 0.87% month - on - month [3].