Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report 2025/5/12 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - A - share major indexes closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.82% to 3369.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.72% to 10301.16 points, and the Chi - Next Index rising 2.63% to 2064.71 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly, and over 4100 stocks in the whole market rose. Most industry sectors rose, with power equipment and machinery leading the gains, defense and military industry leading the rise, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors leading the decline [2]. - China's economic fundamentals show that in April, CPI turned from decline to increase month - on - month, with the year - on - year decline unchanged; PPI's month - on - month decline remained unchanged, and the year - on - year decline slightly widened. The CPI - PPI scissors gap widened compared with the previous month, indicating potential pressure on future prices. In terms of trade, in April, China's imports and exports accelerated by 4.3 percentage points compared with the first quarter, and foreign trade continued to grow steadily, showing resilience [2]. - The joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released. The US will adjust the tariff rates on Chinese goods, and China will also adjust counter - tariffs on the US and suspend non - tariff measures, significantly alleviating the short - term risk of trade friction escalation. On May 7, the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued a "package of financial policies", sending positive signals of stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations [2]. - Currently, China's economy shows dual characteristics of marginal improvement in the trade environment and gradual recovery of domestic demand. The phased easing of China - US tariffs significantly improves the external environment, and the combination of the month - on - month increase in CPI and the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies promotes the recovery of domestic demand, which may further boost market risk appetite. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - Contract Prices: IF main contract (2506) was at 3853.0, up 47.0; IH main contract (2506) was at 2686.6, up 20.4; IC main contract (2506) was at 5688.0, up 82.8; IM main contract (2506) was at 6037.0, up 93.0 [2]. - Contract Spreads: IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1181.2, up 24.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 1901.0, up 38.8; IM - IC current - month contract spread was 365.6, up 11.8; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 3082.2, up 63.4; IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2266.6, up 50.6; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 3447.8, up 75.2 [2]. - Seasonal - to - Current - Month Spreads: IF seasonal - to - current - month was - 98.4, down 1.8; IH seasonal - to - current - month was - 50.6, up 1.0; IC seasonal - to - current - month was - 261.4, down 14.8; IM seasonal - to - current - month was - 308.2, down 11.6 [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were - 33,290.00, up 1520.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 13,750.00, up 1805.0; IC top 20 net positions were - 14,346.00, up 1511.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 38,107.00, up 3839.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was at 3890.61, up 44.5; the Shanghai 50 index was at 2702.62, up 18.6; the CSI 500 index was at 5793.67, up 72.0; the CSI 1000 index was at 6167.46, up 85.4 [2]. - IF main contract basis was - 82.0, down 44.5; IH main contract basis was - 36.4, down 18.6; IC main contract basis was - 188.9, down 71.9; IM main contract basis was - 222.3, down 85.4 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 13,408.67 billion yuan, up 1184.81 billion yuan; margin trading balance (previous trading day) was 18,040.11 billion yuan, down 47.44 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume (previous trading day) was 1341.36 billion yuan, down 97.47 billion yuan; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume) was 0.0 billion yuan, up 430.0 billion yuan; net inflow of main funds was - 572.37 billion yuan, up 182.71 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 75.98%, up 53.57 percentage points; Shibor was 1.422%, down 0.075 percentage points; IO at - the - money call option closing price (2505) was 23.00, up 14.00; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility was 14.90%, up 1.40 percentage points; IO at - the - money put option closing price (2505) was 37.20, down 31.80; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility was 14.75%, up 1.11 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was 6.95%, down 19.75 percentage points; trading volume PCR was 60.89%, down 5.20 percentage points; open interest PCR was 74.13%, up 1.49 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 7.50, up 4.30; technical aspect was at 7.60, up 5.40; capital aspect was at 7.40, up 3.20 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods in Executive Order No. 14257 issued on April 2, 2025. 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for the initial 90 days, while retaining the right to impose the remaining 10% of the tariffs on these goods as stipulated in the executive order. It will also cancel the additional tariffs on these goods imposed under Executive Orders No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and No. 14266 on April 9, 2025. China will correspondingly modify the ad - valorem tariffs on US goods in the Tax Commission Announcement No. 4 of 2025, suspend 24% of the tariffs for the initial 90 days, retain the right to impose the remaining 10% of the tariffs, and cancel the additional tariffs on these goods under Tax Commission Announcements No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025. China will also take necessary measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US since April 2, 2025 [2]. - In April, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.1% year - on - year; PPI fell 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [2]. - In the first four months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Among them, exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5%; imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.2%. In April, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6%. Among them, exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.3%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On May 13 at 20:30, the US April core CPI year - on - year data will be released. On May 14 at 22:30, the US EIA crude oil inventory data (in 10,000 barrels) for the week ending May 9 will be released [3].
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250512
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-12 09:05