国债期货日报-20250512

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On May 12, treasury bond futures weakened collectively, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.08%, 0.20%, 0.46%, and 1.31% respectively. The central bank made a net investment, and the weighted average DR007 rate remained around 1.57%, indicating a relatively loose capital market. Domestically, economic data showed strong performance due to pre - emptive policy efforts to boost domestic demand, with retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. Financial data also slightly exceeded expectations, but the private sector's financing willingness still needed to be boosted. In terms of prices, core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to the drag of international commodities. The expected escalation of tariff frictions led to an unexpected rebound in exports. Overseas, the US PMI in April declined slightly, and non - farm payroll growth, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data all fell short of expectations. Strategically, recent Sino - US tariff negotiations achieved phased results, and with the positive effects of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts exhausted, market risk - aversion sentiment declined significantly, causing the bond market to weaken. Considering that short - term bond futures have been significantly weaker than long - term ones recently, attention should be paid to the risk of long - term bond price corrections due to short - term interest rate spread adjustments. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Prices and Volumes: On May 12, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.530 (-0.46%), 105.890 (-0.2%), 102.276 (-0.08%), and 118.740 (-1.31%) respectively, and their trading volumes increased by 25984, 11884, 12096, and 27236 respectively. [2] - Futures Spreads: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2509 - 2506 spread decreased by 0.06 to 0.49, while the T2509 - 2506 spread increased by 0.04 to 0.19. [2] - Futures Positions: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, and the net short positions of the top 20 in each contract also decreased to varying degrees. [2] 3.2 Bond Market Data - CTD Bond Net Prices: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased, such as 240025.IB (6y) dropping by 0.3405 to 99.0631. [2] - Active Bond Yields: The yields of active bonds with different maturities decreased, with the 1 - year yield dropping by 1.00bp to 1.4000%. [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Data - Short - term Interest Rates: Most short - term interest rates decreased, such as the overnight silver - pledged repo rate dropping by 4.20bp to 1.4080%. The LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - On May 12, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with an issue size of 430 billion yuan, a maturity size of 0, and an interest rate of 1.5% for 7 - day operations. [2] 3.5 Industry News - On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce released a joint statement on Sino - US economic and trade talks in Geneva. Compared with the April 7 tariff measures, the US adjusted to retain a 10% basic tariff + 20% fentanyl tariff, and postponed the rest for 90 days. China also retained a 10% tariff and postponed the rest. - The central bank released the First - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, including measures such as increasing the volume of outright reverse repurchase operations, temporarily suspending treasury bond trading operations, and continuing to use the swap facilities among securities, funds, and insurance companies. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On May 13 at 20:30, the US April unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released. - On May 14 at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 (in ten thousand people) and the US April retail sales month - on - month rate will be released. [3]