纺服、零售周报：制造端有望企稳回升，关注618大促催化（2025.12.19）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the textile and apparel industry, with a focus on potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer demand during the upcoming 618 shopping festival [3]. Core Insights - Tariff expectations have eased, with indications from U.S. Treasury Secretary that there is no intention to decouple from China in textiles and related goods, leading to a significant reduction in tariff-related anxiety [3]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize, with leading manufacturers showing strong resilience and potential for market share growth, particularly companies like Zhejiang Ziran, Kairun, and Huali Group [3]. - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is anticipated to boost domestic consumption, particularly benefiting beauty and personal care brands, as well as discretionary consumer goods [3]. Industry Data Tracking Retail Data - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with clothing and cosmetics showing growth rates of 3.6% and 1.1%, respectively [17][18]. Raw Material Prices - The Cotlook A index for cotton increased by 0.9% to 13,899, while the Chinese cotton price index decreased by 0.4% to 14,122 [19]. - Polyester filament prices saw increases, with POY, FDY, and DTY rising by 4.0%, 3.1%, and 2.4% respectively [19]. Export Data - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports rose by 14.77% year-on-year in March, with footwear exports increasing by 15.77% [25]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies in high-growth sectors with strong fundamentals, such as Anta Sports and 361°, and those with business adjustments leading to high elasticity, like Hailan Home and Semir Apparel [6]. - Retail sector companies like Steady Medical and Dekang Oral are highlighted for their potential dual benefits from consumption boosts and valuation adjustments [6].