建信期货国债日报-20250513

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - 4 - month bond market recovery was mainly driven by risk - aversion and increased easing expectations due to unexpected reciprocal tariffs. With the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, better - than - expected progress in China - US talks, and short - term export resilience, there is insufficient impetus for long - term interest rates to continue to decline. Short - term rates are expected to benefit from the actual loosening of the capital market after the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and their performance may be better than long - term rates. The 1 - year Treasury rate has a downward space of about 10 - 30bp compared to the beginning of the year. Although the capital market in May may be disturbed by the large - scale supply of government bonds, this is a short - term disturbance and may provide a good entry opportunity [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: The smooth progress of China - US talks over the weekend exceeded expectations, boosting the stock market sentiment and causing a significant correction in the long - end of the bond market. Most yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market increased, with a significant increase in the long - end and narrow fluctuations in the short - end. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose by about 5.5bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250004 reported 1.68% [8][9] - Funding Market: The central bank made a net injection in the open market, and the funding market was loose. There were no reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 43 billion yuan. Short - term inter - bank funding rates declined across the board, and medium - and long - term funds continued to decline [10] - Conclusion and Suggestions: Short - term bonds may perform better than long - term bonds. Although the capital market in May may be affected by the large - scale supply of government bonds, this is a short - term disturbance and may provide a good entry opportunity [11][12] 2. Industry News - China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks: The joint statement pointed out that both sides will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on each other's goods, suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures, and establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [13] - Industrial Economy Symposium: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized promoting the stable operation of the industrial economy in the second quarter, cultivating new productive forces, and improving the quality of key industries [14] - Monetary Policy Report: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the bond market construction, and resume Treasury bond trading operations as appropriate [14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Includes data such as the trading data of Treasury bond futures contracts on May 12, the spread between main - contract terms, the spread between main - contract varieties, and the trend of main - contract prices [6] - Money Market: Involves the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, and the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates [28][32] - Derivatives Market: Covers the fixed - rate curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps [34]