建信期货原油日报-20250513

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: May 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - Short - term: With the progress of China - US negotiations, market risk appetite has increased, and oil prices may rebound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at previous highs [7] - Medium - term: There is a clear expectation of inventory accumulation in the second quarter, and the accumulation amplitude is significantly larger than that in the same period of 2024. Without a reversal of OPEC+'s production - increasing intention or a definite alleviation of tariff concerns, oil prices still face downward risks. It is advisable to consider buying put options [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | WTI (Main Contract) | 59.84 | 60.58 | 60.98 | 59.49 | 1.78 | 16.37 | | Brent (Main Contract) | 63.07 | 63.88 | 64.27 | 62.84 | 1.65 | 32.62 | | SC (Main Contract, Yuan/barrel) | 475 | 482.3 | 482.3 | 469.9 | 2.95 | 9.58 | - News: China - US negotiations achieved substantial progress, with both sides set to significantly cut tariffs in the next 90 days. Oil prices once soared nearly 4%, but the gains later narrowed [6] Operation Suggestions - Short - term: Expect an oil price rebound and pay attention to the pressure at previous highs - Medium - term: Consider buying put options due to inventory accumulation expectations and other factors [7] Group 5: Industry News - US - Iran Talks: On May 11, a US senior government official said that the US Middle East envoy Witkoff held the fourth round of direct and indirect talks with Iran in Muscat, Oman. Both sides discussed the "technical elements" of the nuclear agreement and agreed to hold another meeting in the near future [8] - Russia - Ukraine Negotiations: On May 11, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Russia's proposal to resume direct negotiations was a good sign. Ukraine hopes for a full, long - lasting and reliable cease - fire starting from May 12 and is willing to negotiate [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), WTI fund positions (lots), Brent fund net positions (lots), Dtd Brent price ($/barrel), WTI spot price ($/barrel), Oman spot price ($/barrel), US crude oil production growth rate (thousand barrels per day), and EIA crude oil inventory (thousand barrels) [10][11][18]