摩根士丹利：中国经济-中美关税削减：更快且幅度更大

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive shift in the US-China trade relationship, suggesting a favorable environment for investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region [1][2]. Core Insights - The US-China tariff de-escalation occurred more rapidly and significantly than anticipated, with a joint announcement to reverse the tit-for-tat tariff escalation and suspend 24% of the remaining reciprocal 34% hike for a 90-day period starting May 14 [1][2]. - The effective US trade-weighed tariff on China is now approximately 40%, down from 107%, which is a substantial improvement compared to previous forecasts [1][3]. - The establishment of a standing consultation mechanism between the US and China marks a shift from confrontation to managed negotiation, potentially stabilizing trade relations [2]. Summary by Sections Tariff Changes - The US has reduced headline reciprocal tariffs on China from 125% to 34%, with a 90-day suspension of 24% of the remaining hikes [8][9]. - The actual tariff path has deviated significantly from earlier assumptions, indicating a more favorable trade environment than previously expected [7][8]. Economic Implications - The tariff pause is expected to provide a temporary boost to GDP, with 2Q GDP potentially exceeding the current tracking of approximately 4.5% and 3Q GDP stabilizing above 4% [3][4]. - Despite the positive short-term outlook, a durable resolution to trade tensions remains complex due to the intricate bilateral relationship [3].