摩根士丹利：Investor Presentation-中美关税下调，来得更快、降幅更大

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the US-China tariff situation, suggesting a significant reduction in tariffs which could benefit trade dynamics [5][4]. Core Insights - The US has reduced headline reciprocal tariffs on China from 125% to 34%, with further suspensions on specific tariffs, indicating a faster-than-expected tariff de-escalation [4][5]. - April 2025 saw a temporary stabilization in exports due to trade rerouting, although a decline in exports to the US is anticipated for May [7][11]. - The report highlights a weakening in property transactions and a decline in secondary home sales, reflecting broader economic challenges [12][13]. - Consumer spending has shown signs of slowing, particularly during the Labor Day holiday, indicating subdued consumption appetite [18][20]. - Deflationary pressures are worsening as tariffs impact prices, with core CPI holding steady but expected to soften [25][23]. Summary by Sections Tariff Changes - The US and China have mutually agreed to meaningful tariff cuts, with the US reducing tariffs significantly [5][4]. - The report notes that the actual tariff levels are lower than previously assumed, which could positively influence trade [4][6]. Trade Dynamics - April exports were supported by front-loaded shipments and supply-chain adjustments, but a decline is expected in May [7][11]. - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on export elasticity, suggesting that high tariffs may not be sustainable long-term [29]. Economic Indicators - There is a noted decline in secondary home sales and transaction prices, indicating a cooling property market [12][13]. - Consumer spending has decreased, particularly in sectors like auto and online home appliances, reflecting a broader trend of reduced consumption [20][21]. Policy Responses - The report outlines a reactive policy approach, including faster government bond issuance and modest monetary easing measures [28][29]. - A comprehensive fiscal package is anticipated to support consumption and infrastructure investment, with a focus on addressing housing inventory issues [38][39].