甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to low shipments from Iran and insufficient time for the 05 contract, inventory is expected to decline to a seasonal low by the end of April. Be vigilant of continued lower - than - expected shipments from Iran. Assuming normal imports and the shutdown of Shenghong in May, inventory will accumulate, but the low inventory at the end of April will still be factored into trading. An unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract could keep inventory low, providing a safety margin for long positions [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries have accumulated inventory during holidays. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other spreads are oscillating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has increased month - on - month as maintenance in February decreased. Attention should be paid to US quotes and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6] - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories have accumulated. The basis is +10, non - standard spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. Propylene is oscillating, and powder feedstock plant operation is stable. The scheduled production of drawn products is neutral. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw material inventory is neutral while finished - product inventory is slightly high. Given over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure. To relieve the pressure, there needs to be a significant increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH plants [6] - For PVC, the basis has strengthened to 05 - 120, and the ex - factory basis is - 280. Downstream operation is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. With concentrated spring maintenance, the operation rate is expected to reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression. Export orders are fair. In April, pay attention to the Politburo meeting. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may struggle to expand profits with PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 300. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Focus on exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rates [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price data shows that from May 6 to May 12, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the Jiangsu spot price increased by 17, the South China spot price increased by 22, and the盘面MTO profit decreased by 66 [1] Plastic Polyethylene - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, the East China LL price decreased by 10, and the主力期货 price increased by 114 [6] Polypropylene - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased by 70, the主力期货 price increased by 63, and the warehouse receipt increased by 276 [6] PVC - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Shandong caustic soda price increased by 10, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased by 10, and the basis (high - end delivery product) increased by 10 [9][10]