铝日报-20250513

Report Overview - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report - Date: May 13, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations has improved the macro environment, leading to a general rise in asset prices. On the 12th, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and moved higher, with a gain of 1.66% to 19,910, approaching the 20,000 mark again. The overall supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is limited, but the demand side may be affected by the seasonal decline in traditional off-season demand and the end of the PV rush installation period. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and caution should be exercised when considering the rebound space. It is recommended to adopt a short-selling strategy on rebounds. The increase in smelting profit after the rise in aluminum prices may lead to insufficient long positions from funds. Short hedging can participate at high levels [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: The progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations improved the macro environment, and on the 12th, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and moved higher, with a gain of 1.66% to 19,910, approaching the 20,000 mark again. The total open interest of the index decreased by 22,204 to 549,226 lots. After the absolute price of spot aluminum rose, the premium/discount was under pressure. The spot import loss was around -1,300 yuan/ton [8] - Alumina Situation: Driven by the upward trend in the sector, alumina continued to rebound, but the increase was relatively limited and narrowed compared with the previous period. Considering the maintenance and production cuts plans of some alumina plants in May and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the reduction in overall operating capacity was not significant, and the oversupply trend was difficult to change. Caution should be exercised when considering the rebound space, and a short-selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [8] - Electrolytic Aluminum Situation: In May, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. Recent small-scale and轮番 maintenance had little impact on supply. Benefiting from the production capacity ceiling limit, the incremental space was limited, and the overall supply pressure was limited. On the demand side, May is the transition period between peak and off-peak seasons. It is expected that the seasonal decline in traditional off-season demand and the end of the PV rush installation period will have a negative impact. At the beginning of this week, inventories continued to decline, and attention should be paid to the sustainability and the extent of the demand drag [8] - Operation Suggestions: The increase in smelting profit after the rise in aluminum prices may lead to insufficient long positions from funds. Attention should be paid to the resistance performance at the integer mark. Short hedging can participate at high levels [8] 3.2 Industry News - US-UK Trade Agreement: On May 8, 2025, the US and the UK reached a bilateral trade agreement. The US will cancel the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum products and reduce the import tariff on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 UK-made cars per year. In exchange, the UK will cancel the import tariff on US ethanol and open the beef market [9][10] - Hydro and Nemak Cooperation: Norwegian aluminum giant Hydro and global leading aluminum die-casting manufacturer Nemak will cooperate to develop decarbonized cast aluminum products for the automotive industry. The cooperation aims to increase the proportion of recycled aluminum at Hydro's Brazilian Alunorte refinery and gradually shift the energy structure to cleaner energy to significantly reduce the carbon footprint of aluminum castings. Hydro has supplied primary foundry aluminum alloy (PFA) to Nemak, with a carbon footprint of less than 4.0 kg of carbon dioxide per kg of aluminum, only 25% of the global average. According to the signed letter of intent, the carbon footprint will be further reduced by 25% [10] - Guinea to Revoke EGA's Mining License: According to Reuters on May 7, 2025, Guinea's government has initiated procedures to revoke the mining license of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the country. EGA's exports and mining activities have been suspended by the government since October 2024. The mine covers an area of 690 square kilometers and has an estimated reserve of about 400 million tons of bauxite. This move reflects the increasing trend of resource countries in the region to strengthen control over minerals [10]