野村：对华协议仅轻微改善美国经济前景

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest improvement in the US economic outlook due to the recent tariff deal with China, suggesting a positive shift in investment sentiment [7]. Core Insights - The US and China have agreed to reduce reciprocal tariffs by 115 percentage points for 90 days, affecting approximately 6.5% of US imports, which is a larger reduction than previously expected [2][7]. - The new combined tariff rate on Chinese goods is now 30%, while China's tariff rate on US goods is set at 10% [7]. - The report revises GDP forecasts upward and inflation forecasts downward, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain current rates until December 2025 [7][14]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - Approximately half of Chinese imports to the US were subject to 145% tariffs, with the recent deal significantly reducing tariffs for a portion of these goods [2]. - The deal primarily impacts consumer electronics, auto parts, and semiconductors, with many goods remaining unaffected [2]. Trade Negotiations - The outlook for US-China trade has improved, but negotiations with other countries have been slow, indicating a potential hard floor of 10% for tariffs [4][6]. - The US-UK trade deal did not lower tariffs below 10%, suggesting a challenging environment for future trade agreements [6]. Economic Projections - The average effective tariff rate is projected to be 4 to 7 percentage points lower than previous estimates, with forecasts for core PCE inflation also adjusted downward [11][14]. - The GDP growth rate for 2025 has been revised to 0.8% and 1.1% in baseline and benign scenarios, respectively, still below trend [14].