《农产品》日报-20250513

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Long - term cautious and bearish on palm oil; short - term, Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and test the resistance in the 8100 - 8150 yuan range. For soybeans, the US EPA's potential RVO announcement and improved biodiesel profits may boost CBOT soybeans. In China, soybean oil inventories are expected to shift from shortage to surplus, and spot basis will decline [1]. Meal - The Sino - US trade tension has eased, and the reduction in US soybean production and ending stocks estimates has led to a rise in US soybean prices. However, Brazilian supply pressure persists, and domestic soybean arrivals are abundant. The basis is under pressure, but the support around 2900 for US soybeans has strengthened [2]. Live Hogs - Spot prices are stable, with little change in supply - demand. Fat - standard price differentials are narrowing, and the market is expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract is below 14000, with limited room for significant decline or rise [5][6]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are under pressure due to increased supply and new wheat substitution, but in the long term, they are expected to rise due to supply tightening, reduced imports and substitution, and increased demand [8]. Sugar - Short - term, raw sugar is expected to fluctuate widely between 17 - 20 cents/lb. Domestic sugar supply is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to remain volatile, with the reference range for the main contract at 5800 - 5950 [12]. Cotton - Short - term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range. The macro environment is more favorable, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 13500 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - National egg supplies are generally sufficient, demand is average, and prices are expected to decline slightly and then stabilize [14]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On May 12, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8270 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.24%) from February 9; the futures price of Y2509 was 7970 yuan, up 44 yuan (0.56%); the basis was 300 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 17.58%) [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price in Guangdong was 8600 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.58%); the futures price of P2509 was 8450 yuan, up 224 yuan (2.72%); the basis was 150 yuan, down 174 yuan (- 53.70%) [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9380 yuan, down 100 yuan (- 1.05%); the futures price of 01509 was 9400 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 0.63%); the basis was - 20 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 200.00%) [1]. - Spreads: Soybean oil 09 - 01 spread was 6 yuan, down 8 yuan (- 57.14%); palm oil 09 - 01 spread was 2 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 85.71%); rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread was 178 yuan, up 30 yuan (20.27%) [1]. Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3100 yuan, down 100 yuan (- 3.13%); the futures price of M2509 was 2908 yuan, up 9 yuan (0.31%); the basis was 192 yuan, down 109 yuan (- 36.21%) [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 1.20%); the futures price of RM2509 was 2544 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 0.27%); the basis was - 84 yuan, down 23 yuan (- 37.70%) [2]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main contract was 4176 yuan, up 23 yuan (0.55%); the basis was - 196 yuan, down 23 yuan (- 13.29%) [2]. - Spreads: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread was - 40 yuan, up 6 yuan (13.04%); the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread was 232 yuan, up 4 yuan (1.75%) [2]. Live Hogs - Futures: The main contract basis was 1110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (1.37%); the price of LH2507 was 13525 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.22%); the price of LH2509 was 13870 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.39%) [5]. - Spot: The average spot price in various regions showed little change, with a slight decline in some areas [5]. - Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 147233, down 62 (- 0.04%); the weekly white - striped pork price was 0 yuan/kg, down 20.9 yuan (- 100%); the weekly piglet price was 26.13 yuan, down 0.9 yuan (- 3.22%) [5]. Corn - Corn: The price of C2507 was 2363 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.51%); the basis of Jinzhou Port FOB price was - 43 yuan, up 12 yuan (21.82%); the 7 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 20.00%) [8]. - Corn Starch: The price of CS2507 was 2735 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 0.11%); the basis was - 65 yuan, up 3 yuan (4.41%); the 7 - 9 spread was - 67 yuan, up 5 yuan (6.94%) [8]. Sugar - Futures: The price of SR2601 was 5712 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan (0.56%); the price of SR2509 was 2882 yuan, up 46 yuan (0.79%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 17.82 cents/lb, down 0.17 cents (- 0.95%) [12]. - Spot: The spot price in Nanning was 6155 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.33%); the spot price in Kunming was 5985 yuan, up 15 yuan (0.25%) [12]. - Industry: The cumulative national sugar production was 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons (11.63%); the cumulative sales were 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons (26.07%) [12]. Cotton - Futures: The price of CF2509 was 13240 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan (2.24%); the price of CF2601 was 13380 yuan, up 255 yuan (1.94%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.64 cents/lb, down 0.08 cents (- 0.12%) [13]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14085 yuan, up 174 yuan (1.25%); the CC Index: 3128B was 14187 yuan, up 65 yuan (0.46%) [13]. - Industry: Commercial inventories were 415.26 million tons, down 36.26 million tons (- 8.0%); imports were 7.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons (- 41.7%) [13]. Eggs - Prices and Spreads: The price of the 09 contract was 3800 yuan/500KG, up 33 yuan (0.88%); the price of the 06 contract was 2927 yuan, up 32 yuan (1.11%); the basis was 148 yuan/500KG, up 290 yuan (103.99%) [14]. - Related Indicators: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings was 4.20 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled chickens was 5.25 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan (0.19%); the feed - egg ratio was 2.69, up 0.04 (1.51%) [14].