《特殊商品》日报-20250513

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3][4] Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices continue to decline, but futures have stabilized and rebounded due to large spot premiums. The fundamentals face high supply and high warehouse receipts pressure, with major demand weakening, yet there are signs of improvement. The price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 10500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether there will be further production cuts [1] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has a further production cut expectation, and futures prices are oscillating upwards. In May, demand decline is highly certain, and enterprises will adjust production plans. The market is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. There are different views from bears and bulls, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate in the range of 36000 - 42000 yuan/ton [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market has a strong expectation of maintenance from May to June. If maintenance is concentrated, it will relieve the supply pressure. The glass market has a poor market expectation from April to May and a summer rainy - season expectation after June. The glass price is expected to continue to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [3] Natural Rubber - In the short term, the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts improves the macro - sentiment and boosts rubber prices. However, the weak demand expectation still exists, and the expectation of raw material increase during the peak season suppresses the upside of rubber prices. The rubber price is expected to continue wide - range oscillation, with the operating range referring to 14500 - 15500 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - On May 12, the price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon was 9100 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from May 9. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 882 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a change of 7.19% - 0.50%. The basis of SI4210 (benchmark) increased by 6.42% [1] Monthly Spread - The spread of 2505 - 2506 was - 100 yuan/ton on May 12, down 400.00% from May 9. The spreads of 2506 - 2507 and 2507 - 2508 remained unchanged, while the spreads of 2508 - 2509 and 2509 - 2510 increased by 14.29% and 60.00% respectively [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon output was 30.08 million tons, down 12.10% from the previous month. Xinjiang's output decreased by 20.55%, while Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. The national and Xinjiang's开工 rates decreased, while Yunnan and Sichuan increased [1] Inventory Change - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.87% on a weekly basis, Yunnan's decreased by 1.23%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.16%. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.36%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 2.18% [1] Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - On May 12, the average prices of N - type re - fed material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 23.22%, and the cauliflower material basis decreased by 10.93% [2] Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract price was 38450 yuan/ton on May 12, up 1.64% from May 9. The spreads of PS2506 - PS2507 decreased by 24.95%, while the spreads of PS2507 - PS2508, PS2508 - PS2509, PS2509 - PS2510, PS2510 - PS2511, and PS2511 - PS2512 increased [2] Fundamental Data - On a weekly basis, the silicon wafer output decreased by 7.07%, and the polysilicon output decreased by 4.46%. On a monthly basis, the April polysilicon output decreased by 0.73%, the March import volume increased by 35.09%, and the export volume increased by 43.18% [2] Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory decreased by 1.53%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 12.08% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - On May 12, the East China, Central China, and South China glass quotes remained unchanged. The glass 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 0.77% and 1.06% respectively, and the 05 basis decreased by 4.42% [3] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 0.84%, the 2509 contract increased by 1.00%, and the 05 basis increased by 5.56% [3] Supply - The soda ash开工 rate decreased by 1.97%, the weekly output decreased by 1.89%, the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.71%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased by 1.32% [3] Inventory - The glass inventory increased by 3.96%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.74%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 5.89% [3] Real Estate Data - The year - on - year changes in real estate completion area, sales area, new construction area, and construction area showed different trends [3] Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - On May 12, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard - grade rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 0.34%, the full - latex basis decreased by 1775.00%, the Thai standard mixed rubber quote decreased by 0.35%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 206.82% [4] Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 7.06%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 9.31%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 91.18% [4] Fundamental Data - In March, Thailand's rubber output decreased by 56.93%, Indonesia's increased by 5.92%, and India's decreased by 28.38%. The domestic tire output increased by 1.79%, and the export volume increased by 42.34% [4] Inventory Change - The bonded - area inventory increased by 0.90%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE increased by 4.96% [4]