建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coke and coking coal markets are expected to stabilize and rebound after the second successful bottom - testing of steel futures prices in mid - to late May. One can consider selling put options at high prices or buying the far - month 2509 contracts for hedging or investment when the technical and fundamental aspects resonate [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On May 12, the main coke and coking coal futures contracts 2509 briefly declined and then oscillated upwards, hitting new lows for the 9 - contract since June 15, 2017, and September 20, 2016, respectively. The J2509 contract closed at 1471.5 yuan/ton with a 0.75% increase, and the JM2509 contract closed at 889.5 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase [5] - The KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts showed a differentiated trend on the daily line, with the J and K values turning upwards and the D value continuing to decline. The KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2509 contract on the daily line had a golden cross trend. The MACD green bars of both contracts on the daily line narrowed slightly [7] 3.2 Spot Market - On May 12, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1440 yuan/ton, with no price change. The price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in Lvliang decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1240 yuan/ton, while other regions remained unchanged [7] 3.3 Future Outlook - Coke: Downstream steel mills' production is hovering at a high level. After 7 consecutive weeks of production increases, coking plants' production has slightly declined. Coking plant inventories have significantly decreased, steel mill inventories have only slightly increased from a low level, and port inventories have declined for 3 consecutive weeks from a high level. Coke price rebounds require the cooperation of the finished product market. As steel prices slowly rise from a low level, the coke market is expected to further improve in mid - May [9] - Coking coal: Import volumes in March were higher than the previous high, but the growth rate has slowed compared to January - February. The domestic coal industry still emphasizes the principle of ensuring supply. Although the output and operating rate of coal washing plants are significantly lower than in the fourth quarter of last year, the supply remains abundant. Port inventories have significantly decreased, which is favorable, but steel mill inventories have not decreased much and have even slightly increased recently. Coking plants actively replenished stocks but have destocked again in the past 3 weeks. The significant resumption of production by coking plants is conducive to the stabilization of coking coal prices in the future, but it depends on the improvement of the entire steel industry chain [9] 3.4 Industry News - On May 12, China and the US issued a joint statement on the Geneva economic and trade talks, with both sides promising to adjust tariffs and other measures before May 14, 2025 [10] - The "China Coal Industry Development Report (2024)" was released, emphasizing that developing new - quality productivity is an important focus for the high - quality development of the coal industry [11] - As of April 30, the cumulative throughput of Tangshan Port Coal Company reached 790.87 million tons, exceeding the budget by 23.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.86% [11] - Yongtai Energy will fully achieve coal - power integration after the Haizetan Coal Mine is put into production next year, which is expected to improve its performance [11] - On May 12, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.5 million tons, a 0.27% increase from the previous day, a 4.9% increase from the previous week, and a 20.97% increase from the same period last month [11] - From January to April 2025, Mongolia's coal exports decreased in both volume and price, with a cumulative export volume of 24.9647 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 61,300 tons or 0.25% [11] - From January to April 2025, Indonesia's coal exports decreased by more than 10% year - on - year, reaching a three - year low for the same period [11] - In April 2025, Russia's railway - transported export coal was 14.359 million tons, a 3.38% decrease from the previous month and a 2.91% decrease from the same period last year [11] - SouthGobi Resources received an invitation from the Mongolian government to discuss the government's ownership in its subsidiary [11] - In February 2025, India's coal imports decreased by 16.47% year - on - year and 19.58% month - on - month, and the import value decreased by 34.15% year - on - year and 22.1% month - on - month [12] 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents data through multiple charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national average daily hot metal production, inventories at ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants, the coking coal inventories at ports, coking plants, and steel mills, and the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the September contract, and between Linfen's low - sulfur primary coking coal and the September contract [14][16][22][25][30][31]