《有色》日报-20250513

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views Tin Industry - The macro sentiment may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand, it is advisable to try short - selling in the range of 265,000 - 270,000, and focus on the supply recovery rhythm [1] Copper Industry - The copper market presents a combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", with short - term prices likely to fluctuate. Pay attention to the continuation of the strong reality after May, the tariff negotiation rhythm, and the resistance level of 77,500 - 78,500 [2] Aluminum Industry - The alumina market has mixed factors and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The aluminum price is supported by inventory reduction, tariff easing, and policy expectations, but is pressured by weakening demand and cost, and is expected to be weak, with the support level at 18,000 - 18,500 [4] Zinc Industry - Short - term zinc prices may be supported by tariff easing. In the future, if tariffs lead to insufficient consumption, the price may decline; otherwise, it may maintain a high - level shock. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 [6] Lithium Industry - Tariff news has limited impact on lithium. The supply - demand contradiction is clear, and the support is weakening. The short - term price may stabilize, but the upward space is limited. A short - selling strategy is recommended, with the reference range of 62,000 - 66,000 [9] Nickel Industry - The macro sentiment improves, and the nickel price has cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [11] Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel market has some price support from the ore end, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction expands. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 [14] Summary by Directory Tin Industry Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose to 262,800, up 1.23%; LME 0 - 3 spread rose 72.79% [1] Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - Import loss decreased by 74.84% to - 2,373.05 yuan/ton [1] Monthly Spread - 2506 - 2507 spread rose 433.33% to 160 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - March tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, while SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75% [1] Inventory Changes - SHEF inventory decreased by 2.13%, while social inventory increased by 3.66% [1] Copper Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 0.09% to 78,275 yuan/ton; import loss was - 570 yuan/ton [2] Monthly Spread - 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 180 yuan/ton to 330 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Data - April electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and March imports increased by 15.24% [2] Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory decreased by 9.63% to 8.07 million tons [2] Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 1.02% to 19,810 yuan/ton; 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Data - April alumina production decreased by 6.17%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% [4] Inventory Changes - Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.50% to 60.1 million tons [4] Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22% to 22,720 yuan/ton; 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [6] Fundamental Data - April refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and March imports increased by 9.47% [6] Inventory Changes - Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.66% to 8.55 million tons [6] Lithium Industry Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.00% to 64,600 yuan/ton; 2505 - 2506 spread rose 220 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton [9] Fundamental Data - April lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, and demand increased by 3.02% [9] Inventory Changes - Last week, the overall inventory decreased slightly, mainly due to the reduction in downstream inventory [9] Nickel Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.92% to 127,225 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 6.35% to - 183 [11] Fundamental Data - April refined nickel production increased by 6.08%, and imports decreased by 68.84% [11] Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory decreased by 3.08% to 28,675 [11] Stainless Steel Industry Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price rose 0.77% to 13,150 yuan/ton; 2506 - 2507 spread remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton [14] Fundamental Data - April 300 - series stainless steel production in China increased by 11.37%, and exports increased by 70.98% [14] Inventory Changes - 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 1.94% to 56 million tons [14]