Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation of excess supply and inventory accumulation, but the supply growth rate may slow down due to production cuts [2]. - The option market shows a bullish sentiment, with a slightly decreasing implied volatility [2]. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines below the 0 - axis and the red bars are converging [2]. - The recommended operation is to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 63,220 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 26,740 lots, down 3,735 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 294,226 lots, up 9,895 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 1,200 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 36,194 lots/ton, down 157 lots [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 62,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 1,380 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 753 US dollars/ton, down 13 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,340 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,855 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 43,180 tons, up 7,490 tons; the monthly import volume is 18,125.49 tons, up 5,797.53 tons; the monthly export volume is 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 50%, up 8%; the monthly production of power batteries is 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 48%, up 8%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 57%, unchanged; the monthly production of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 42.74%, up 1.58%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and its year - on - year increase is 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and its year - on - year change is 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 16.84%, up 0.14%; the 40 - day average volatility of the target is 16.68%, up 0.14% [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 100,491 lots, down 66,895 lots; the total put position is 40,393 lots, down 21,369 lots; the total put - call ratio of positions is 40.2%, up 3.2977%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.25%, down 0.0079% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to April, China's automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% [2]. - As of May 11, 2025, the application volume for automobile trade - in subsidies reached 3.225 million, with 1.035 million for vehicle scrapping and replacement and 2.19 million for replacement. The cumulative application volume has exceeded 10 million since the implementation of the policy [2]. - Xiaomi SU7 won the sales championship in the price range above 100,000 yuan in the Chinese automobile market in April [2]. - In April, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% and 44.2%. In April, automobile exports were 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [2]. - The US will suspend the implementation of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods for the first 90 days, and China will take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US [2].
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250513
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-13 09:03