甲醇日报 | 2025-5-13

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the methanol industry, suggesting a volatile market environment with mixed signals from supply and demand dynamics [4]. Core Insights - The core logic of the report highlights increased maintenance of production facilities, a rise in port deliveries, and a growing willingness to replenish stocks among downstream buyers [4][2]. - The report notes that while coal prices are under pressure, the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, with limited upward momentum for prices but also constrained downside potential [1]. - Methanol production capacity utilization is expected to rise in the short term, but planned maintenance and production cuts may lead to a decrease in output in the future [1]. Market Dynamics - Futures market sentiment is positive, leading to smooth transactions in the afternoon with some companies halting sales to support prices, resulting in a general increase in spot prices [1]. - The total futures holdings decreased by 2,007 contracts, indicating a slight reduction in market activity [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The report discusses the impact of maintenance on production facilities, with several key plants undergoing repairs, which may affect overall industry output [1]. - Port inventories have increased by 24,500 tons to 561,900 tons, but the pace of inventory accumulation aligns with expectations, suggesting a potential recovery in market demand [1]. Price Movements - The report provides specific price movements, with the closing price for methanol futures on May 12, 2025, at 2,270 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.93% increase from the previous trading day [5]. - Regional price differences are noted, with Jiangsu's price at 2,422 CNY/ton, a 1.02% increase, while prices in other regions like Inner Mongolia and Henan remained stable [9]. Industry Chain Profits - The report details production profits for various production methods, with Northwest coal-based production showing a profit of 597 CNY/ton, while MTO processes remain in significant losses [13]. - Traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and acetic acid are experiencing varying profit margins, with acetic acid showing a profit of 242.12 CNY/ton [13].