瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The price of Shanghai lead may rebound slightly in the short - term due to inventory reduction, but the rebound height is expected to be limited. Subsequently, it will decline from high levels due to demand. It is recommended to adopt a "high - short" trading strategy and pay attention to the new impacts brought by tax policy changes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,970 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,977.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars. The 06 - 07 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The Shanghai lead position is 69,335 lots, down 3,470 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,944 lots, down 181 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 40,961 tons, up 1,995 tons. The SHFE inventory is 49,504 tons, up 2,718 tons; the LME lead inventory is 251,800 tons, down 1,625 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,010 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is 5.95 dollars/ton, up 1.26 dollars. The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 15,929 yuan, down 250 yuan. The price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,690 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 77.51%, down 1.68 percentage points. The weekly output of primary lead is 35,300 tons, down 600 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 20 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,121.43 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,690.39 points, up 42.4 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary will study how to solve non - tariff barriers; Trump signed an executive order to reduce drug prices and threatened car tariffs on non - price - reducing countries; US tariff revenue in April surged 130% year - on - year to 16 billion dollars. The Fed Governor Kugler supports keeping interest rates unchanged and still believes tariffs will have a significant impact. Trump announced a "grand tax - cut bill" proposing a 4 - trillion - dollar tax cut over ten years, raising the debt ceiling by 4 trillion dollars, and not mentioning a tax increase on millionaires [2]