Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The China-US negotiation has made progress with mutual tariff cuts, and the textile industry's prosperity index in March rebounded above the 52.47% boom-bust line. The ICAC's May report forecasts an increase in production and a slight increase in consumption compared to last month, which is bearish. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. In March, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 81.4%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that in the 24/25 season, production will be 6.16 million tons, imports 1.5 million tons, consumption 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory 8.31 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - The basis of spot 3128b with a national average price of 14,187 has a basis of 947 (for the 09 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of China's ending inventory in the 24/25 season is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - The main positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - In April, textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year, indicating good export performance. With the China - US negotiation's mutual tariff cuts and last week's interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, there are many short - term positives, and the futures have rebounded rapidly. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have a short - term rebound, and a cautious bullish intraday trading strategy is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the given content. 3.2每日提示 - Bullish factors: Futures prices are close to historical lows [6]. - Bearish factors: Decrease in foreign trade orders, increase in inventory, US tariff hikes, stagnant exports to the US, and European regulations restricting imports [6]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the given content. 3.4基本面数据 - Global Production and Consumption: In 2024/25 (April forecast), global cotton production is 26.321 million tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 7%. Global consumption is 25.261 million tons, a decrease of 114,000 tons from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 1% [11]. - China's Supply and Demand: In 2024/25 (April forecast), China's cotton production is 6.16 million tons, imports are 1.5 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.31 million tons. The estimated average domestic cotton 3128B price is 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is 75 - 100 cents/pound [4][19]. 3.5持仓数据 No information provided in the given content.
棉花早报-20250513
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-13 14:27