大越期货油脂早报-20250513

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is relatively high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US relations and tariff issues affect the market [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in March decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,100, with a basis of 286, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On May 5th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100 [2] 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,600, with a basis of 576, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On May 5th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease [3] - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,200 [3] 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,500, with a basis of 122, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On May 5th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are increasing [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [4] 3.4 Recent利多利空Analysis - Lido: The US soybean stocks - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production - reduction season [5] - Negative: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]