贵金属早报-20250513

Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The progress of the China-US talks exceeded expectations, leading to a significant strengthening of risk appetite. Gold prices dropped significantly, while silver prices first rose and then dived. The US stock and European stock markets closed higher, the US dollar index rose, the offshore RMB appreciated significantly, and US bond yields increased across the board [4][6]. - The progress of the China-US talks raised optimistic expectations for global trade negotiations and cooled down the expectations of interest rate cuts. Gold prices still face downward pressure, while silver prices are supported by the optimistic expectations of tariff negotiations but also face some pressure due to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations [4][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Gold: The progress of the China-US talks exceeded expectations, risk appetite strengthened, and gold prices dropped significantly. The US three major stock indexes rose sharply, European three major stock indexes closed higher, the US dollar index rose 1.39% to 101.81, the offshore RMB appreciated significantly to 7.1996, US bond yields increased across the board, and the 10-year US bond yield rose 9.05 basis points to 4.4729%. COMEX gold futures fell 3.06% to $3,241.80 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The progress of the China-US talks exceeded expectations, risk appetite strengthened, and silver prices first rose and then dived. COMEX silver futures fell 0.36% to $32.80 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is -648, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of gold futures warrants remained unchanged at 15,648 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish. The main net long position decreased, which is bullish [4][5]. - Silver: The basis is -20, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of SHFE silver futures warrants decreased by 9,506 kilograms to 924,953 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish. The main net long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's central bank to release the summary of opinions of the members of the Monetary Policy Meeting in April. - To be determined Possible release of China's M2 and other money supply data for April, new RMB loans from January to April, and the increment of social financing scale from January to April. - 14:00 UK's three - month ILO unemployment rate and employment figures for March. - 15:00 The State Council Information Office to hold a press conference on "Taking the path of specialization, refinement, uniqueness, and innovation to strengthen and expand advanced manufacturing", and a speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member Escriva. - 16:00 A speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member Makhlouf. - 16:45 A speech by the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Pill. - 17:00 Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for May, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for May. - To be determined US President Trump to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 - 16. - 20:30 US CPI for April. - 22:10 Speeches by Bank of England Governor Bailey and European Central Bank Governing Council member Knot [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The progress of the China-US talks exceeded expectations, risk appetite strengthened, and gold prices dropped. The basis is -648, with the spot at a discount to the futures [4]. - Silver: The progress of the China-US talks exceeded expectations, risk appetite strengthened, and silver prices first rose and then dived. The basis is -20, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The main net long position decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in SHFE gold decreased by 1,54%, the short positions decreased by 1.81%, and the net position decreased by 1.31% [5][30]. - Silver: The main net long position decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in SHFE silver decreased by 0.27%, the short positions increased by 0.88%, and the net position decreased by 2.81% [6][32].