Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2500 - 2580. In the short - term, it was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a rise and then a fall. Influenced by soybean meal, its price has returned to range - bound oscillations [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2500 - 2580 [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future outcome uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other, there is still potential for the global geopolitical conflict to intensify, which supports commodity prices [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased after March; the outcome of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand balance: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. - Price data: The trading average price, trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 28 to May 12 are presented, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from April 28 to May 12 are also given, including the prices of the main contract 2509, the far - month contract 2601, and the spot price in Fujian. - Inventory data: Rapeseed meal inventory is 36,000 tons, up 148.28% week - on - week from 14,500 tons last week and 20% year - on - year from 30,000 tons in the same period last year. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipt data from April 25 to May 12 shows a continuous increase [10][14][15]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10].
大越期货菜粕早报-20250513
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-13 14:39