Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the natural rubber market. The overall situation is complex, with a neutral fundamental outlook, a combination of bullish and bearish factors, and market sentiment driving short - term trading. The supply is increasing, the domestic inventory is rising, the tire start - up rate is falling, but there are also positive factors such as domestic economic recovery and high downstream consumption [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber starts to increase, foreign spot prices rise, domestic inventory begins to increase, and tire start - up rate drops. The market sentiment dominates and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing while the tire start - up rate is falling. Automobile production and sales are seasonally decreasing, but tire production and exports are at a high level [4][23][29]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is increasing seasonally, and the inventory in Qingdao area has resumed growth. Both are increasing week - on - week and decreasing year - on - year [4][14][17]. - Price: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on May 12, and the base price on May 12 expanded [8][35]. - Base Difference: The spot price is 14,650, and the base difference is - 375, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Disk Performance: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The main force has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are strong [6]. - Bearish Factors: Supply is increasing, market inventory is rising, and the external environment is bearish [6].
大越期货天胶早报-20250513
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-13 14:31