大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Coking Coal: The coking coal market has a loose supply situation. Although some coal prices may decline due to weak downstream procurement and high inventory, the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term. The market sentiment has slightly improved due to international news, but steel mills' raw material replenishment is mainly for rigid demand [2]. - Coke: Coke supply is expected to increase due to lower coking coal prices. However, considering the approaching traditional off - season of the steel market and high inventory in steel mills, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually accumulating, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coal mines in production areas maintain stable production, with a loose supply. Some coal prices have been slightly reduced due to weak downstream procurement and more auction failures. There is still a price cut expectation for some high - inventory coal varieties [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 1100, and the basis is 210.5, indicating a spot premium over futures [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1927.1 million tons, a decrease of 24.4 million tons from last week. Steel mill inventory is 782.5 million tons, port inventory is 324.8 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 819.8 million tons [2]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are decreasing [3]. - Expectation: Affected by international news, the price has risen and market sentiment has slightly recovered. However, steel mills' raw material replenishment is mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [2]. Coke - Fundamentals: Coking enterprises maintain a high - level of operation and are active in shipping. Although some enterprises have slightly slower shipments due to weak downstream procurement, the overall inventory is low and there is no significant pressure [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 1490, and the basis is 18.5, indicating a spot premium over futures [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 978.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from last week. Steel mill inventory is 666.4 million tons, port inventory is 243.6 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 68.8 million tons [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing [7]. - Expectation: Lower coking coal prices support coking enterprise profits, and supply is expected to increase. However, considering the steel market's off - season and high inventory in steel mills, the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [6]. 3.2 Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of various types of coking coal in Russian, American, and Australian ports on May 12, 2025, including prices and price changes [10]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week [21]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Coking coal inventory in independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week [24]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [27]. 3.4 Other Indicators - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [38]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [42].