大越期货白糖早报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The international sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded. In April in China, the sugar sales rate was good and the spot price was firm. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou sugar futures is expected to rebound with support around 5,800. In the short - term, it will fluctuate upwards. A short - term long - position strategy on dips can be considered during trading [4][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Conab estimates that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season will increase by 4% year - on - year to 45.9 million tons, and USDA predicts a 2% increase to 44.7 million tons. Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, close to the out - of - quota tariff for raw sugar imports. As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1072 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 7.2446 million tons, and the sales rate was 65.22% (compared to 57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,220 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 335 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of April, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 386,260 tons [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The position is long - biased, the net long position has increased, but the main trend is unclear [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply and Demand: Czarnikow has raised the global sugar market surplus in the 24/25 season to 4.7 million tons. Green Pool predicts a global sugar market surplus of 2.7 million tons in the 25/26 season, compared to a shortage of 3.7 million tons in the previous season. Thailand's sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to reach a high level. India's cumulative sugar production as of April 15 was 25.425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18% [7]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand: According to the USDA's global sugar supply - demand balance sheet, in 2024, the initial inventory was 48.372 million tons, total sugar production was 186.619 million tons, total supply was 292.43 million tons, domestic consumption was 179.631 million tons, total consumption was 247.003 million tons, the ending inventory was 45.427 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 18.39%. According to the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet from Bricker, in 2024, the initial inventory was 12.2781 million tons, production was 11 million tons, imports were 4.5 million tons, total domestic supply was 27.7781 million tons, domestic consumption was 14.3 million tons, total domestic consumption was 14.42 million tons, the ending inventory was 13.3581 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 92.64% [34][39]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the content.