大越期货原油早报-20250513

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The agreement between the US and China to significantly reduce high tariffs for at least 90 days has temporarily eased the trade war, but the fundamental differences remain, and it will take years to reshape the trade relationship. The short - term market has been strongly boosted, but the oil price has fallen from its high due to supply - side pressure and long - term tariff negotiation issues. In the short term, it is difficult for crude oil to break through without more news stimuli. The short - term range of crude oil is 478 - 486, and long - term investors should partially take profit on long positions [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Crude Oil 2506: The fundamentals are neutral as the US - China trade agreement eases the situation, but Iraq plans to cut exports. The basis is bullish with spot premiums over futures. Inventory data is bullish as API, EIA, and Cushing inventories all decreased, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory also declined. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, showing a neutral signal. WTI and Brent's main positions are long, but with different trends (WTI long positions increasing, Brent long positions decreasing), also neutral. The short - term range is 478 - 486, and long - term investors should partially take profit on long positions [3]. - Futures and Spot Market: In the futures market, the settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil all increased, with increases of 1.05 (1.64%), 0.93 (1.52%), 5.90 (1.26%), and 1.15 (1.78%) respectively. In the spot market, the prices of various crude oils also rose, with the UK Brent Dtd increasing by 1.54 (2.41%), WTI by 0.93 (1.52%), Oman crude by 1.82 (2.92%), etc. [7][9] 2. Recent News - Trade Agreement: The US and China reached an agreement to significantly reduce high tariffs for at least 90 days, temporarily easing the trade war. However, the fundamental differences remain, and it will take years to reshape the trade relationship. The Fed officials believe that the agreement can reduce the impact of the trade war, but the remaining tariffs are still high and will have a stagflation effect on the economy [5]. - Mexico's Oil Export: Pemex plans to reduce its crude oil exports this year as more crude will be sent to local refineries, especially the new Olmeca refinery. Once fully operational, it can process 340,000 barrels of crude per day and will receive about 100,000 barrels per day, increasing local processing to 1.2 million barrels per day and leaving about 400,000 barrels per day for export [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Not clearly stated in the text. - Bearish Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and OPEC+ may increase production ahead of schedule. The market is driven by the resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and potential rapid supply - side production increases. There are also risks such as the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks. Additionally, the US threatens to sanction Iran, and Venezuelan crude is also at risk of sanctions, while there are signs of some easing in the trade war [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - API Inventory: As of May 2, the API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.494 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 2.48 million barrels [3][10]. - EIA Inventory: As of May 2, the EIA inventory decreased by 2.032 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 833,000 barrels, and the Cushing area inventory decreased by 740,000 barrels [3][14]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The text presents a supply - demand balance sheet showing the supply - demand gap, OPEC+ crude oil production, and Call on OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 - Q4 [20]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of April 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 177,209, an increase of 6,254. As of May 6, it decreased by 1,781 to 175,428 [16]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of April 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 109,941, a decrease of 18,442. As of May 6, it decreased by 12,383 to 97,558 [19].