大越期货燃料油早报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains near the current level. The spot premium of marine fuel oil has risen due to increased buying interest in the spot market. The commercial fuel oil inventory in Singapore, the world's largest bunkering hub, has dropped to a seven - week low, and imports have declined for the second consecutive week. Crude oil price increases and the easing of Sino - US trade relations are short - term positives for crude - related prices, but there are still significant obstacles in the future, and preparations should be made for the short - term profit - taking. The expected operating ranges are 3010 - 3050 for FU2507 and 3520 - 3560 for LU2506 [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, spot premium of marine fuel oil rises, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory drops to a seven - week low with declining imports [3]. - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 80 yuan/ton at 412.9 dollars/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil basis is 185 yuan/ton at 499.5 dollars/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory on May 7 was 2412.9 million barrels, an increase of 40 million barrels [3]. - Market: Prices are near the 20 - day line, which is flat [3]. - Main Positions: High - sulfur main positions are long and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are short and increasing [3]. - Expectations: Crude oil price increases and Sino - US trade relation easing are short - term positives, but long - term negotiation expectations remain. FU2507 is expected to operate in the 3010 - 3050 range, and LU2506 in the 3520 - 3560 range [3]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Long Factors: OPEC+ additional production cuts continue (execution to be tracked), and China's import quotas are released [4]. - Short Factors: The optimism of demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4]. - Market Drivers: The resonance between the uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The price of the FU main contract futures increased from 2923 to 2961, a rise of 38 (1.30%); the price of the LU main contract futures increased from 3464 to 3479, a rise of 15 (0.43%). The FU basis increased from 53 to 80, a rise of 27 (51.63%); the LU basis decreased from 190 to 185, a decline of 4 (- 2.28%) [5]. - Spot Quotes: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 402.43 to 412.90, a rise of 10.47 (2.60%); low - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 493.50 to 499.50, a rise of 6.00 (1.22%); Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 380.39 to 390.86, a rise of 10.47 (2.75%); Singapore diesel price increased from 559.34 to 572.32, a rise of 12.98 (2.32%) [6]. 3.4 Spread Data - Not provided in the given content 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on May 7 was 2412.9 million barrels, an increase of 40 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory data from February 26 to May 7 shows fluctuations [8].