大越期货沥青期货早报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, it is bearish. The supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and the demand is weak due to the off - season. The inventory shows continuous destocking in social inventory, continuous stockpiling in refinery inventory, and continuous destocking in port inventory. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating in the range of 3448 - 3514 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In May 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production is 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 29.2426%, a month - on - month increase of 0.419 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 488,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.46%, and the estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises is 727,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - Demand Side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 28.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 8.6262%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 447.43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 23.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 701.2071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8]. - Expected Trend: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating in the range of 3448 - 3514 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Price and Basis: On May 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3585 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 118 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 1,395,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%; refinery inventory is 839,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.70%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.42% [11]. - Disk and Main Position: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed above MA20. The main position is net short, changing from long to short [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: The asphalt processing profit shows a certain change trend, and the profit difference between coking and asphalt also has corresponding fluctuations [8][40]. - Supply - Side Analysis: It includes aspects such as output, shipment volume, inventory of diluted asphalt in ports,开工率 (capacity utilization rate), and estimated maintenance loss volume. For example, the weekly output and capacity utilization rate have changed to a certain extent, and the inventory of diluted asphalt in ports has decreased [7][45][48]. - Inventory Analysis: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, refinery inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio of refineries. Social inventory has decreased, while refinery inventory has increased [11][66][70]. - Import and Export Situation: There are corresponding trends in asphalt exports and imports, and there is also a price difference trend in South Korean asphalt imports [76][80]. - Demand - Side Analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke output, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, downstream machinery demand), and asphalt construction rates (including heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.). Overall, the downstream demand shows different trends, and some asphalt construction rates are lower than the historical average [82][85][97]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance situation of asphalt from January 2024 to May 2025, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [108][109].