大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply exceeding demand. The overall trend of lithium carbonate prices is difficult to reverse the downward situation due to capacity mismatch. The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,420 - 64,660 [8][9][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Supply Side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,349 tons, a 26.69% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In April 2025, the production was 73,810 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 75,500 tons, a 2.29% increase. The import volume in April was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 tons, a 20% increase [8][9]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 86,988 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 15,556 tons, an 11.59% week - on - week increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 68,459 yuan/ton, a 0.59% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 4,750 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite is 69,610 yuan/ton, a 0.33% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,566 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Base Spread: On May 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,600 yuan/ton, and the base spread of the 07 contract was 560 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 54,852 tons, a 7.48% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 42,156 tons, a 6.67% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 34,561 tons, a 3.54% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 131,569 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a bearish situation [9]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish situation [9]. - Likely Positive Factors: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene [11]. - Likely Negative Factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. - Main Logic: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price and Base Spread: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. The base spreads of some products showed significant changes, such as a - 74.89% decrease in the base spread of the 07 contract [15]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly and monthly operating rates of some products showed fluctuations. For example, the weekly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.09%, and the monthly operating rate increased by 1.82%. The production costs and profits of lithium iron ore and lithium iron phosphate also changed [17]. - Demand - Side Data: The monthly production and sales volume of some products increased. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.13%, and the monthly battery loading volume increased by 62.18% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore showed a downward trend. The production and import volume of lithium ore in different periods showed different changes. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also fluctuated. The weekly inventory of lithium ore at ports and traders showed a certain trend [21][22]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly operating rate, production, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also changed in different months [27][28][33]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different periods [35][36][39]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and various recycling materials for producing lithium carbonate showed different trends. The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of lithium hydroxide carbonization to lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium carbonate causticization to lithium hydroxide also changed [41][42][45]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide at different stages (smelter, downstream, other) showed different trends in weekly and monthly data [50]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - Lithium Battery: The price, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries showed different trends in different periods. The cost of battery cells also changed [53][54][56]. - Ternary Precursor: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different periods [58][59][62]. - Ternary Material: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends in different periods [64][65][67]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, export volume, and inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends in different periods [69][70][72]. - New Energy Vehicle: The production, sales volume, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different periods [76][77][78].