大越期货豆粕早报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - M2509 Soybean Meal: Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. Influenced by factors such as the US - China tariff negotiation progress, US soybean planting weather, South American soybean harvest, and domestic soybean imports, it maintains a generally weak and oscillatory pattern [9][10]. - A2507 Soybeans: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4140 and 4240. Affected by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic soybean cost - performance, it is also subject to the impact of the US - China tariff negotiation and South American soybean harvest [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The US - China tariff negotiation has achieved significant progress, and the US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on the tariff war and planting weather [15]. - In May, the arrival of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean meal market is in a weak and oscillatory pattern [15]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, and the market is in a weak and oscillatory state [15]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish: Short - term lower - than - expected arrival of imported soybeans in China, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [16]. - Bearish: Increased arrival of imported soybeans in May, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans [16]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish: The strong oscillation of US soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [17]. - Bearish: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the planned increase in domestic purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [17]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: Spot price is 3000 (East China), basis is 92, showing a premium over futures. The inventory of oil mills is 10.12 tons, a 23.26% increase from last week and an 81.9% decrease from the same period last year [8][10]. - Soybeans: Spot price is 4160, basis is - 16, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills is 534.91 tons, a 12.7% increase from last week and a 27.79% increase from the same period last year [13]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [10]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [13]. 3.6 Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Global: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [34]. - Domestic: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans also showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [35]. 3.7 Planting and Harvesting Progress of Major Soybean - Producing Areas - Argentina (2023/24): The sowing and harvesting progress is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing a relatively stable development trend [36]. - US (2024): The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and there are some differences in different stages [37][38][39][40]. - Brazil (2024/25): The planting and harvesting progress are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the overall progress is relatively smooth [41][42]. - Argentina (2024/25): The planting progress is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and it is advancing steadily [43]. 3.8 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports (Recent Half - Year) - From October 2024 to April 2025, the harvest area, single - yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans have changed to some extent, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also been adjusted [44]. 3.9 Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory has returned to a low level [47]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have continued to increase, and the stocking demand has increased [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures spread has narrowed slightly [53]. - The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [55]. - The prices of pigs and piglets have fluctuated slightly [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [59]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased slightly [61].