《有色》日报-20250514

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, but the supply is expected to recover in July. The demand improvement is limited, and the subsequent demand outlook is pessimistic. The Sino - US tariff negotiation consensus may drive the price to rebound, but considering supply recovery and weak demand, try shorting in the 265,000 - 270,000 range and focus on the supply recovery rhythm [1]. Copper - Macroeconomic factors such as tariffs and the "232" investigation affect copper prices. The supply of raw materials is tight, and domestic inventories are low. The demand in the peak season may not be sustainable. The copper market shows a "strong current + weak expectation" pattern, with prices expected to be volatile in the short - term, and focus on the demand after May and tariff negotiation progress [2]. Aluminum - For alumina, the operating capacity may fluctuate, demand is stable with limited growth, and the cost support is weakening. Prices are expected to be volatile. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable, demand may decline, but the low inventory and tariff relaxation support the price. Overall, the price is expected to be weak, with a support range of 18,000 - 18,500 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is loose. Refined zinc supply was affected by over - expected maintenance in April. Downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing index is weakening. Short - term prices may be supported by tariff relaxation. In the long - term, consider shorting, and focus on ore production and downstream demand changes [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market fluctuates. The tariff negotiation result has a short - term impact on sentiment. The supply pressure is clear, demand is relatively flat, and inventory is high. Prices may stabilize in the short - term, but the upside is limited. The overall strategy is to short on rallies, with a reference range of 62,000 - 66,000 [9]. Nickel - The nickel market is affected by the rumored Philippine ore ban and tariff negotiation results. The cost support is strong, but the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside. The price is expected to be in a range - bound adjustment, with a reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by tariff negotiation results. The ore price provides support, but the supply is excessive, and demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure eases slightly. The price is expected to be volatile, with a reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.23% to 262,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 72.79% to - 43.01 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss decreased by 74.84% to - 2,373.05 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.19 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increased by 37.50% [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75%, and refined tin imports increased by 12.41%. The export of refined tin decreased by 29.50%, and the export of Indonesian refined tin increased by 46.15% [1]. Inventory Change - SHEF inventory decreased by 2.13%, social inventory increased by 3.66%, SHEF warrants decreased by 0.85%, and LME inventory increased by 3.14% [1]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.09% to 78,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased. The import loss increased to - 570 yuan/ton [2]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts decreased, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 180 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons. In March, imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod decreased, and inventories in various regions decreased [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.02% to 19,810 yuan/ton. The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 754.90 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 371.42 million tons. The operating rates of some aluminum products changed, and inventories decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22% to 22,720 yuan/ton. The spreads of different contracts decreased [6]. Fundamental Data - In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31% to 50.98 million tons. In March, imports increased by 9.47% to 5.78 million tons, and exports decreased by 77.37% to 0.02 million tons. The operating rates of downstream industries increased, and inventories increased [6]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.00% to 64,600 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 147.71% [9]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [9]. Fundamental Data - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. In March, imports increased by 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased by 47.25% to 220 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.92% to 127,225 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 3.73% [11]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [11]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In April, China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84%. Inventories in various regions decreased [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils increased, and the basis decreased [14]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [14]. Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesian production decreased by 6.67%. Imports decreased, exports increased, and inventories changed slightly [14].