建信期货多晶硅日报-20250514

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: May 14, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon 06 contract was strong first and then weak. The PS2506 closed at 38,270 yuan/ton, up 0.91%, with a trading volume of 322,000 lots and an open interest of 52,252 lots, a net decrease of 17,165 lots [4] - Future Outlook: Short - term trends are bullish. The shortage of near - month delivery products and the far - month production cut logic boost the preference of long - position funds. However, the upward resistance is increasing. The key trading range is 38,000 - 40,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Monthly silicon material supply is maintained at 90,000 - 100,000 tons. There may be an increase in production during the wet season. If far - month production is cut by more than 10%, the spot market is expected to enter the destocking stage [4] - Demand: The "rush installation" of downstream photovoltaic terminals is coming to an end, and demand has decreased significantly month - on - month. Polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have been accumulating inventory for 5 consecutive weeks [4] Group 4: Market News - As of May 14, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 20 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - There were rumors that the top six silicon material manufacturers planned to acquire the remaining silicon material production capacity, and a leading manufacturer proposed a production cut to support prices, but the feasibility of the plan is unknown [5] - Relevant enterprise executives and investor hotlines denied the "silicon material storage plan" rumor and mentioned the current supply - demand game situation of silicon material production capacity [5]