建信期货国债日报-20250514

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market recovery in April was mainly driven by the unexpected equal tariffs, leading to increased risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing. The long - end bonds performed better as the short - end liquidity loosened slightly. However, with the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the better - than - expected progress of China - US talks, and the short - term resilience of exports, the momentum for further decline in long - end interest rates is insufficient. The short - end is expected to benefit from the actual loosening of the liquidity after the implementation of policy measures and may outperform the long - end. The short - end interest rates have more room to decline as they have not recovered to the beginning - of - year level. Although the liquidity in May may be disturbed by the large supply of government bonds, it is a short - term issue and may provide good entry opportunities [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Market Condition: Market sentiment improved, and treasury bond futures slightly rebounded. The yields of major inter - bank spot interest - rate bonds declined across the board, with a larger decline at the long - end. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250004 dropped by 1.45bp to 1.663%. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal in the open - market operation, but the liquidity remained loose. The short - end inter - bank capital interest rates mostly declined, while the medium - and long - term rates slightly increased [8][9][10] - Conclusion: The short - end bonds may outperform the long - end, and investors are advised to actively seize opportunities despite potential short - term disturbances from the large supply of government bonds [11][12] 3.2行业要闻 - Diplomatic Response: The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the issue of the US imposing special tariffs on China over the fentanyl issue, stating that the problem lies with the US itself. The US actions have damaged China - US cooperation in the anti - drug field and China's interests [13] - China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks: The joint statement of the talks shows that both sides will adjust tariff policies, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and part of the additional tariffs cancelled. China will also suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. A mechanism will be established for further consultations on economic and trade relations [13][14] - Central Bank's Monetary Policy Report: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing boosting consumption, the sustainability of China's government debt expansion, and promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. It also plans to strengthen the bond market and resume treasury bond trading operations when appropriate [14] 3.3数据概览 - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The data includes trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on May 13, 2025, such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. It also covers the spread between different contracts and the trend of the main contracts [6] - Money Market: The data shows the changes in the SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate, and inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - Derivatives Market: The data presents the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]