甲醇日报-20250514

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Data Sources: Wind, CCB Futures Research and Development Department [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the Chinese methanol market remains "supply increasing and demand weak". The direct impact of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations on the supply and demand of this product is relatively limited. In the short term, focus should be on the impact of macro factors on traders' sentiment and potential adjustments to tariff policies. In the short term, the main regional markets may show a stable and slightly rebounding trend following external factors. In the medium to long term, considering the gradual return of supply growth, relatively limited demand growth, and poor profits in many downstream industries, the methanol market still needs to be vigilant against the risk of the trading logic gradually returning to the fundamentals after the boost of macro-positive factors. In the short term, it is still regarded as a low-level oscillating rebound [5]. - From a technical perspective, on the hourly line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are both above the zero axis, and the RSI is about to enter the overbought area again, so pay attention to the callback after overbought. On the daily line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis, with a confirmed bottom divergence, a stop-fall rebound, and the red bars continue to lengthen. In the short term, it is expected to operate in an oscillating rebound [6]. Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - On Tuesday's close, the methanol weighted contract increased positions and rebounded, with an increase of 10,064 lots in the weighted contract and 6,568 lots in the 09 main contract. The weighted contract showed a trend of opening high, rising, falling back, and then rising again during the day, and finally closed with a small real-body positive line with long upper and lower shadows, with an overall increase of 0.88%. The average spot transaction price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu today was 2,438 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - Futures market quotes: The MA2501 contract opened at 2,346, closed at 2,354, with a high of 2,371, a low of 2,319, a rise of 0.86%, a trading volume of 52,758, an open interest of 163,172, an open interest change of 6,087, and a speculation degree of 0.32. The MA2505 contract opened at 2,376, closed at 2,380, with a high of 2,380, a low of 2,338, a rise of 1.80%, a trading volume of 990, an open interest of 3,319, an open interest change of -542, and a speculation degree of 0.30. The MA2509 contract opened at 2,290, closed at 2,291, with a high of 2,308, a low of 2,256, a rise of 0.93%, a trading volume of 766,446, an open interest of 764,051, an open interest change of 6,569, and a speculation degree of 1.00 [7] Group 5: Industry News - A 3-million-ton green methanol integrated project in Ningxia, with an investment of approximately 10 billion yuan, has been approved. The project is a cooperation between Lingwu City and Shanxi Jinyuan Biomass Technology Co., Ltd. It will involve black corn cultivation, anthocyanin purification, fecal waste resource utilization, source-network-load-storage and new energy power generation projects, and biomass-to-methanol production. After completion, it will inject strong impetus into the construction of a modern energy system in Yinchuan and provide a "Yinchuan model" for the large-scale application of green methanol in China. Each ton of methanol produced can absorb 1.6 tons of carbon dioxide, and in the front-end cultivation stage, each mu of saline-alkali-tolerant black corn can sequester 2 tons of carbon. The project brings together high-quality resources from partners such as Meijin Energy, Air Liquide, and Weilili Group [12] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis of the main contract, the price difference between production and sales areas, futures prices and warehouse receipt quantities, the price difference between MA09 and MA01, the profits of three methanol production processes, and overseas methanol market prices [15][16][25]