建信期货豆粕日报-20250514

Report Overview - Report Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The USDA's May report predicted the soybean supply - demand balance for the 25/26 season. The new - season US soybean has a slightly reduced supply and adjusted demand, resulting in a significant reduction in the ending inventory, and the US soybean returns to a relatively balanced supply - demand fundamental. After the report was released, the US soybean rose slightly, but there are still many uncertainties, especially regarding the US - China trade and biodiesel policies. Although the US soybean supply - demand is balanced, the South American soybean, especially Brazilian soybean, has a relatively loose fundamental. With the progress of the negotiation and the US soybean entering the weather - sensitive period, the CBOT soybean is expected to have strong support at the bottom, and its upward potential depends on the weather in the next 2 - 3 months [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Domestic Soybean Meal Futures: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts such as 2505, 2507, and 2509 all declined. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,354,709, and the open interest increased by 11,418. The trading volume of the 2507 contract was 160,303, and the open interest decreased by 20,090. The trading volume of the 2505 contract was 847, and the open interest decreased by 378 [6]. - US Soybean Futures: The US soybean 07 contract was strong, with the main contract at 1065 cents. The USDA's May report showed that the new - season US soybean planting area was about 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%; the harvested area was about 82.7 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%; the yield per unit was estimated at 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 3.6%. The estimated production of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.6%. The estimated export volume was 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the estimated crushing volume was 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The ending inventory was estimated at 295 million bushels, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [6]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the week of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, and the emergence rate was 17%. The USDA estimated the US soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to be 4.34 billion bushels, the ending inventory to be 295 million bushels, and the yield per unit to be 52.5 bushels per acre. The production estimates of Argentina and Brazil in the 2024/2025 season remained unchanged [7][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][14].