花旗：美国股票策略_ 第一季度财报揭示的关税政策信息

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on US equities, expecting the markets to digest recent gains due to ongoing tariff rollouts and macroeconomic concerns [1][6][14]. Core Insights - The Q1 earnings season showed a pattern of falling revisions leading to positive surprises, but this translated into a decline in full-year EPS estimates [1][2][11]. - Growth sectors, particularly the Magnificent 7, demonstrated stronger earnings resilience compared to Cyclicals and Defensives, reinforcing the view that Growth is fundamentally defensive in the current environment [3][9][23]. - Small and Mid Cap companies are experiencing significant margin pressure, with notable downward revisions in gross margin expectations for 2025 compared to Large Cap firms [4][32]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - S&P 500 earnings surprises were strong, with EPS beats significantly outpacing sales beats, indicating efficiency gains rather than top-line growth [2][15]. - Despite a 6% upside in Q1 EPS estimates, there was a -1.4% decline in full-year consensus estimates, suggesting further earnings rightsizing is likely [8][18]. Consumer Sector Insights - The Consumer Discretionary and Staples sectors are showing signs of deterioration, with sales growth rates declining alongside rising unemployment [5][12][41]. - Recent sales growth numbers were weak, indicating potential consumer weakness ahead of full tariff impacts [5][12][39]. Tariff Impact and Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the current consensus growth for the S&P 500 will likely fall from +8% to +3% due to tariff implications [11][29]. - The S&P 500 has rallied approximately +14% since "Moratorium Day," but valuation concerns are resurfacing as the index approaches the year-end target of 5800 [14][29]. Small/Mid Cap Analysis - Small and Mid Cap firms are facing more significant cuts in sales growth expectations and gross margins compared to their Large Cap counterparts [32][33]. - Analysts express skepticism about the resilience of Large Cap gross margins unless there is a shift in tariff policies [32]. Consumer Insights - Top-line growth for consumer sectors has decelerated sharply, with Q1 results coming in at about half of the expected growth rate [36][39]. - Inventory levels among consumer companies were low, suggesting limited preparation for tariff impacts [43].