摩根士丹利：中国市场洞察_ 贸易谈判开启后中国市场动态可能如何转变

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Chinese equities, suggesting a better chance of inflow upside than downside due to measured macro and earnings drag from tariffs compared to peers [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new developments in trade talks and domestic policy easing by the PBOC and CSRC have led to a rapid shift in market dynamics, with a record-high attendance at the MS China BEST conference indicating rising investor interest in China [3][4]. - Despite potential headwinds on corporate earnings starting from Q2, the overall setup for Chinese equities remains relatively stable compared to other major economies, with a smaller magnitude of negative change expected [4][7]. - The report emphasizes that the listed Chinese equity universe is less exposed to the tariff dispute due to limited foreign revenue exposure, which is under 15% [7][9]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics & Investor Sentiment - Investors expressed a strong willingness to diversify their asset allocation towards China, driven by a weakening US dollar and ongoing tariff uncertainties [8][9]. - The report notes that China presents the largest underweight gap within existing global EM equities, with over 80% of investors indicating plans to increase their Chinese equity exposure [9]. Macro and Corporate Earnings - The near-term impact of tariffs on macro and corporate earnings is negative but not as severe as in other major economies, with China’s GDP growth forecast revised down by 0.3 percentage points to 4.2% for 2025 [4][7]. - Earnings growth forecasts for MSCI China have been revised down from 7% to 5%, while the broader MSCI EM index forecast has been cut from 11% to 3% [4]. Policy Support and Structural Opportunities - The report discusses the potential for policy easing, with a fiscal package of RMB 2 trillion announced and a possible additional package of RMB 1-1.5 trillion in the second half of 2025, which could cushion macro growth by up to 60 basis points [7]. - There is a growing investor interest in AI, tech, and new economy sectors, indicating a shift towards new equity market champions following a period of disruption [18][19]. Trade Talks and Market Strategy - The report advises a balanced approach during the ongoing US-China trade talks, recommending high-quality, large-cap internet names and selective high-tech players while maintaining some dividend yield plays to mitigate market volatility [24][25].