Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review Futures Market - On May 13, the main contracts 2509 of coke and coking coal futures opened higher and closed lower, approaching the lows of the 9 - contract since June 15, 2017, and September 20, 2016, respectively, and then rebounding slightly in the afternoon. The closing price of J2509 was 1447 yuan/ton, down 0.69%, with a trading volume of 21,211 lots and an open interest of 52,046 lots. The closing price of JM2509 was 870.5 yuan/ton, down 0.85%, with a trading volume of 429,310 lots and an open interest of 427,320 lots [6]. Spot Market - On May 13, the daily KDJ indicators of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal declined, with the J - value and K - value turning down and the D - value continuing to slide. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts expanded. The quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke flat - price index remained unchanged in some ports, and the low - sulfur main coking coal price in Tangshan decreased by 40 yuan/ton [9]. Group 3: Industry News - As of May 12, the average daily shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway in May was 122.42 tons, and the average daily approved train number of the Hohhot Railway Bureau was 27.7. The shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway increased slightly compared to the maintenance period in April, but the overall volume was at a medium level. The approved train number of the Hohhot Railway Bureau decreased significantly after the May Day holiday [11]. - Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary won the exploration right of Fanqiao Iron Mine in Huoqiu County, Anhui Province, for 920 million yuan [11]. - China's automobile production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time in the first four months of this year. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 4.429 million and 4.3 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 48.3% and 46.2%, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.7% of the total new vehicle sales [12]. - In April 2025, the sales of excavators by major manufacturers were 22,142 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. From January to April, the cumulative sales were 83,514 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.4% [12]. - In April 2025, Russia's seaborne coal exports were 13.3825 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.36%. The seaborne coal exports to the Chinese mainland were 5.1356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.57% [12]. - In April 2025, the coal exports from Russia to China by rail were 8.226 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05% and a year - on - year increase of 19.36% [12]. - Russia plans to increase coal production capacity by 250 million tons by 2025 and aims to supply 40 million tons of coking coal to India annually by 2035 [12][13]. - In April 2025, the coal exports from Gladstone Port in Australia were 4.396 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.4% [13]. - Russia expects to increase its oil production to 10.8 million barrels per day in the future, and the share of OPEC+ countries in the global oil market will increase from 49% to 52% by 2050 [13]. Group 4: Outlook - Coke: Downstream steel mills' production is hovering at a high level. Coking plants' production decreased slightly after seven weeks of increase, with obvious inventory reduction. Steel mills' inventory increased slightly from a low level, and port inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks. The coke price rebound needs the cooperation of the finished product market. It is expected that the coke market may improve further in mid - May [10]. - Coking Coal: In March, imports increased from the high level in previous months but with a smaller increase. The domestic coal industry emphasizes supply security. Although the output and operating rate of coal washing plants are lower than those in the fourth quarter of last year, the supply is still abundant. Port inventory reduction is positive, but steel mills' inventory decreased slightly and even increased recently, and coking plants reduced inventory again after three weeks of restocking. The obvious resumption of production in coking plants is beneficial for the stabilization of coking coal prices, but it depends on the improvement of the entire steel industry chain [10]. - It is expected that the coke and coking coal markets will stabilize and rebound after the second bottom - testing of steel futures prices in mid - to late May. One can try to sell put options at high prices or buy the far - month 2509 contracts for hedging or investment when the technical and fundamental aspects resonate [10]. Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides figures on the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the daily average pig iron output, the inventory of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the output and operating rate of coal washing plants, the inventory of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants, and the basis of coke and coking coal contracts [15][18][23][26][34]
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250514
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-14 05:29